Week of 10/5 - P3 CFB Thread:

Ville @ GT (+4/64) This is what Friday night games should be. Ville coming off 23-20 loss at Pitt. Defense managed to keep Pitt out of EZ a bunch, but that is probably more a knock on Pitt then credit to Ville def having figured it out. I think they are a bad defense right now.

They couldnt run the ball at all on Pitt. Hawkins had a 70ish yard run and then pretty much nothing else on any play. Cunningham was harried and ultimately went down with a scary hit on final play where he smashed head on ground and was slow to get up. Bye week came at gr8 time

All reports are that he will be a go. The Ville tackles have struggled this year against good pass rushers, but I think GT's DL is pretty poor in comparison to much of the league. Theyve been a bit all over the map. Its hard to glean to much from FSU and Cuse games right now.

Those teams games are generally circuses no matter the opponent. Even though Ville has thrown for huge numbers in two of their three games, they are a run first outfit. I suspect 300 yard passing games for MC will be few and far between moving forward. I don't have exact count

but I believe GT QB Sims has thrown at least 4 or 5 picks that have been intercepted by a DL. Its unreal. Maybe its less but there has been one every game, I think. GT offense is good and they are going to move the ball on Ville here. Can they eliminate TrFR mistakes by Sims?

Well, they havent yet, but if they do, this offense will do numbers, esp against a bad defense like Villes. On def, GT likes to pressure, and with a player like MC at QB, I think it could result in both some negative plays and long TDs conceded. The GT secondary hasn't shown

well against good passing attacks, but they really haven't faced many to be fair. Interestingly enough, there is a history w Satterfield and Collins. They were the OC and DC on Mario Crsitobal's 2010 FIU team which featured TY Hilton. These two teams have only met once, in 2018,

which was a 66-31 win by the Admiral, but was before these two coaches times. Weather is currently beautiful in Atlanta, but rain has been forecasted on and off for Friday, but current weather patterns show a beautiful fall night. I don't have any action on this one right now.

I agree with Ville being small favorite and it being a higher scoring game. If weather holds up, let's call it a 34-31 win for Louisville.

NC State @ UVA (-9.5/63.5) I went over 55.5 in vegas at open. Doing well versus market so far. Thankfully, this game, with an over ticket, appears to be spared from the forecasted weather that is forthcoming that I'll be referencing in this thread from here on out.

NC State coming off 30-29 win at Pitt. Another outright win as a dog after coming off a poor showing at VT. Leary solidified the job this week with a great passing performance. NC St busted and gave up a 70ish yard pass TD on second play of game, had a pick 6 called back,

but ultimately benefited from 151 yards on their final 2 drives of the game where they won pretty much at the buzzer. They ran 75 plays for 398 yards while Pitt had 77 for 503.The Pack's total yardage was down but it wasn't a great indication of how they moved the ball.

Pitt had 13 penalties in the game, many on DPI and in the secondary which depressed the actual yarage for NCSU some. Pitts issue remains both their inability to run the ball at all, esp against a NCSU rush defense that is really bad, and their red zone woes are really incredible.

The one consistent has been the NCSU OL. I thought they held up well against a voracious Pitt DL. They couldn't really run it, but I don't suspect many teams will run it on Pitt. They gave leary time and he showed off the Elite 11 arm talent and his pass catchers were solid.

UVA off a 41-23 loss to Clemson where they showed well. Aside from some moments of individual brilliance by ETN and Rodgers, the defense was okay. They had some success off the edges against the Clemson OL and bothered Lawrence. On offense, they couldn't hit a pass early in the

game but once ARM got into the flow, he did his thing. The announcer compared him to a fullback at one point and I chuckled. He's a treat. His band of misfit pass catchers continue to play well and Billy Kemp continues to find holes in zones and he ate up Clemson. They got

some additonal help from their 6'7" trees but on one play, FR v SO in the end zone, Andrew Booth made a miraculous ODB one handed INT on the 6'7" Davis and he showed why he's a future R1 NFL pick in '22. UVA was -2 in TO but had 81 for 417 while Clemson was held to 70 for 466.

Overall, I think the game was a net positive for UVA and it showed some chinks in the armor of Clemson. At end of day, having an elite player like ETN and now being able to throw him the ball in space proved to be a huge difference for them. I was impressed by how UVA ran ball

I think the tempo should be high between UVA and NCSU. Much like last game, NCSU will prob throw the ball a bit more than run it. I think the style of offense that UVA runs with some zone reads and misdirection and general school yard style are a really bad matchup for NCSU def

that generally lacks discipline. I like what Ive seen from both teams but I can trust the UVA defense a lot more than I can the Packs. The line is pretty high, certainly wasn't a favorite that I considered, but the total opened soft and I was fortunate to hit it. Its now bet up

high enough and with the weather being dicey across this part of the country that I would leave it alone. I do agree with a Hoos win and there being points, I will prob make a heavy DFS lineup with this game, I would prob avoid at current. I'll go Hoos 35-28.