I wouldn’t be surprised if Putin brokered ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan. Here’s why:

Frozen conflict between AR & AZ in South Caucasus allows Russia maintain military presence there under the pretext of protecting Armenia -but really with a neo-colonial vision in mind

2. Putin plays a smart game between Armenia and Azerbaijan, favoring the former, but also not letting the latter always out in cold. Putin, who is also aware that Baku is Ankara’s closest ally, will let Azerbaijan take back some of its territory -to cultivate Baku & Erdogan alike

3. Further, Putin knows that letting Azerbaijan pummel Armenia will weaken Pashinyan, least pro-Russia Armenian leader in recent memory. Hence, Putin’s strategy: let Ankara unfreeze the conflict and Baku recover some of its territory; weaken Pashinyan; and re-freeze the conflict

4. A game well played for Baku, which thanks to Putin’s goal to cultivate Erdogan (and with Israeli weapons) makes a winning move —but an even better-played game for Putin, who brings Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Turkey closer to his fold in a frozen conflict