It’s time to inch out on a limb.

In the coming weeks, I’ll unpack my notebook, highlighting the trends and intelligence I feel most certain will shape the outcome November 3.

Here’s the first batch. https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/06/four-notes-election-reporter-notebook-426599

1. Trump fatigue is peaking at the wrong time for Trump.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/06/four-notes-election-reporter-notebook-426599

2. The “silent majority” in this election is not who you think it is.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/06/four-notes-election-reporter-notebook-426599

3. Democrats will regret placing so much emphasis on absentee voting.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/06/four-notes-election-reporter-notebook-426599

4. Trump might lose women voters by numbers we’ve never imagined.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/10/06/four-notes-election-reporter-notebook-426599

and thanks to the legend @peter_king for inspiring a longtime reader to steal his "things I think I think" bit.