Right, going to try take us through NPHET/Level 5/Government debacle from NPHET's side:

It was a "failure of communication", one NPHET source tells me, adding that Taoiseach should have been given advance notice.

Yes, Covid-19's trajectory is bad but there was no grace period given, unlike previous times, most recently Dublin's move to Level 3 being flagged for a week or so in advance.

"There should have been plenty of advance warning," another NPHET member said.

So why wasn't there?

Setting data & evidence of Covid-19's spread aside for a moment, it's important to note NPHET aren't immune from internal disagreement, clashes of personality, mistakes.

In this instance, general consensus is that this was a culmination of a landscape shifted since July.

Firstly, a new Government - beleaguered by successive cock-ups - a new CMO, a rising incidence of Covid-19.

Secondly, Tony Holohan's departure and subsequent return.

In the period between leaving and returning last week, the lines of communication between NPHET, DOH and Government had changed. They aren't as open.

It isn't the same relationship, one NPHET source told me.

The timing of Holohan's return - and subsequent letter re: Level 5 - was critical with some members of NPHET believing that had he returned one week earlier or later, this could have been avoided.

However, faced with restrictions in Dublin not working, virus slowing but not reversing, and cases growing nationwide NPHET met on Sunday morning.

https://www.thejournal.ie/nphet-warned-that-level-5-is-the-only-opportunity-to-control-covid-19-5224704-Oct2020/
Outlined in Holohan's letter, there's been a growing number of hospitalisations and ICU cases, a positivity rate of 3.4%.

Localised restrictions worked well in LOK as NPHET knew how to target, suppress Covid-19.

Dublin's cases, though, are widespread and much harder to tackle due to the prevalence of community transmission.

NPHET felt a short, sharp shock in the form of Level 5 would help regain control.

Despite discussing Covid-19 data, effects of Lockdown on young people, NPHET failed to consider how to communicate its message properly.

Everything was considered, I'm told, except how to deliver, or even flag, this news.

It's clear now that not enough counsel was giving to Senior NPHET officials about how to communicate and deliver its Level 5 recommendation.

There was no buy-in from Government because NPHET didn't ask them to get on board.

It's a hard lesson learned.

The Tánaiste's comments last night - though TDs now appear to be distancing themselves from them - were stark.

Despite them, some members of NPHET believe relationship can be repaired and that CMO and Taoiseach should meet this week.

Saying that, another NPHET member believes Dr Holohan overplayed his hand on this one. Danger here.

Others on NPHET believe that Level 5 is inevitable, simply delayed for now.

This week will be key to getting back on track. https://www.thejournal.ie/nphet-level-5-recommendation-5225094-Oct2020/