Time for another French Covid update. Individual days are misleading so I have crunched stats for 7 days. The trend is mildly encouraging. All numbers are up – cases, deaths, intensive care – but the pace of increase is steady or only slightly above last week. No explosion. 1/9

These are, however, nationwide figures. The situation in some places, notably Paris, remains worrying – hence the government’s decision to trigger a “maximum alert” in the capital and shut bars, gyms but not all restaurants for at least 2 weeks. 2/9

The number of reported cases in 24 hours reached a new peak of 16,972 on Saturday but has, overall, been stable. The average of cases in the last 7 days was 12,242. The previous 7-day rate was 12,838. Before that - 10,521, then 8,630.
Topping off and flattening out? Maybe.
3/9

The number of acute or Intensive Care (ICU) cases and deaths is still increasing daily but at nothing like the perpendicular rates of increase seen in the first wave in France in late March.
4/9

The average number of reported C19 deaths in France in the last 7 days was 81.71 (previous week 74.7). In late March- early April there were over 1,000 deaths on some days. The running total is now 32,299 (not yet including an estimated 1,800 deaths at home). 5/9

The number of C19 cases in intensive care reached 1,415 yesterday, compared to 1,164 a week ago. This is an average increase of 35.8 a day, compared to 35 the previous week. ICU occupancy has doubled in 3 weeks but…. in March it rocketed from 0 to 7,200 in that time. 6/9

All the same, ICU occupancy in Paris is reported as 112 beds - or 36% of the total capacity – one of the three triggers for the “max alert” decision. The positive rate in the capital is 270.36 per 100,000 people, compared 107.5 in the country as a whole. 7/9

Here are detailed stats, from https://www.gouvernement.fr/info-coronavirus/carte-et-donnees
New cases over 7 days, working backwards: 5,084 (yesterday)-12,565-16,972-12,148-13,970-12,845-8,051- 4,070.
Deaths, likewise: 60-32-43-136-63-63-85-81. The high Friday figure includes care home deaths for a week.
8/9

Conclusion.
No need for complacency or for panic.

9/9