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I predict that we will have 4 more named storms this season (but I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes higher). See below for details:
#Delta #HurricaneSeason
#Delta #HurricaneSeason
The NHC defines certain dates by which the 11 total average storms should occur, on average, as listed in this table
I searched the advisory archive for this year and recorded the number of storms that occured this year on or before each date-
7/9: 6
8/1: 3
8/13: 1
8/23: 3
8/31: 1
9/8: 3
9/16: 3
9/24: 3
10/4: 1
(plus Delta today, 10/5)
7/9: 6
8/1: 3
8/13: 1
8/23: 3
8/31: 1
9/8: 3
9/16: 3
9/24: 3
10/4: 1
(plus Delta today, 10/5)
I then took the average of those (also the same as dividing the total 2020 storms by the total average storms to date) and got 2.667, meaning there are 2.667 named storms for every 1 in an average season (Delta, being in the period after 10/4, is not in the calculation)
Since there are two time blocks left this season, 10/5-10/19 and 10/20-11/23, we multiply 2.667 by two and get 5.333 more storms. But since we already have Delta in the new period, that means 4 more (Epsilon, Zeta, Eta, Theta)
Clearly, this is an average. Some of the periods have had only 1 storm. So we may have as few as 1 or 2 storms, or as many as 5, 6, or more. This calculation doesn’t accurately represent out of season storms (as you saw, the period with the most was before Jul 9 with 6)...
So if we continue to have storms into December that could further increase the total. 4 more is just a best guess
