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Thread on the Artsakh / Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
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Pashinyan has announced universal military conscription - Many Armenians see this as an existential struggle (Aliyev: Congress of New Azerbaijan Party, 2018; "Yerevan is our historical land.")
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Thread on the Artsakh / Nagorno-Karabakh conflict
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Pashinyan has announced universal military conscription - Many Armenians see this as an existential struggle (Aliyev: Congress of New Azerbaijan Party, 2018; "Yerevan is our historical land.")
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For years, Armenian politicians have promised no compromise in order to get elected - maximalist position sure eventually to result in conflict - especially as Aliyev also claims 100% of NK with no room for compromise.
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For years, Armenian politicians have promised no compromise in order to get elected - maximalist position sure eventually to result in conflict - especially as Aliyev also claims 100% of NK with no room for compromise.
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In addition, recent Armenian diversification of procurement & West-leaning policies are now being punished by Putin who demands complete subservience + authority to negotiate on behalf of Armenia - duly rejected
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In addition, recent Armenian diversification of procurement & West-leaning policies are now being punished by Putin who demands complete subservience + authority to negotiate on behalf of Armenia - duly rejected
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Armenian Govt wd now be prepared to negotiate ceding territory in exchange for formal recognition of NK except that it is understood that this wd not appease Erdogan who would take what's offered & then demand more.
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Armenian Govt wd now be prepared to negotiate ceding territory in exchange for formal recognition of NK except that it is understood that this wd not appease Erdogan who would take what's offered & then demand more.
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With unreliable negotiation partners, the Armenian analysis is reduced to the conclusion: "If we win there will be a peace accord. If we lose we will be massacred & the homeland itself will be imperiled."
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With unreliable negotiation partners, the Armenian analysis is reduced to the conclusion: "If we win there will be a peace accord. If we lose we will be massacred & the homeland itself will be imperiled."
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The loss of just NK would entail massacres + the ethnic cleansing of 150K Armenians & loss of all their cultural heritage of some 2,500 years, as has occurred in Nakhichevan.
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The loss of just NK would entail massacres + the ethnic cleansing of 150K Armenians & loss of all their cultural heritage of some 2,500 years, as has occurred in Nakhichevan.
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But the fall of NK would also entail the deaths of thousands of Armenian armed forces, the fall of the current Armenian Govt, and the return to the bad old days when Armenia was ruled by oligarchs using the country as a money-laundering operation for Putin.
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But the fall of NK would also entail the deaths of thousands of Armenian armed forces, the fall of the current Armenian Govt, and the return to the bad old days when Armenia was ruled by oligarchs using the country as a money-laundering operation for Putin.
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For now, Aliyev still believes he can win militarily in NK due to Azerbaijan's superior resources & the active support of Turkey. But for many Armenians, this feels like a continuation of the Genocide, and the determination to defend every inch is very strong.
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For now, Aliyev still believes he can win militarily in NK due to Azerbaijan's superior resources & the active support of Turkey. But for many Armenians, this feels like a continuation of the Genocide, and the determination to defend every inch is very strong.
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Having failed in Syria, Libya, N Iraq, & the E Med, Erdogan now needs the NK conflict to divert attention from economic collapse at home. Putin won't stop him as the conflict is also useful to him. So far, France, Greece, Egypt, Iran & UAE are still sitting on their hands.
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Having failed in Syria, Libya, N Iraq, & the E Med, Erdogan now needs the NK conflict to divert attention from economic collapse at home. Putin won't stop him as the conflict is also useful to him. So far, France, Greece, Egypt, Iran & UAE are still sitting on their hands.
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