1) Note to all my new followers (over 12,000 in the last month):

I'm going to say something virtually no other pollster/analyst (that I am aware of) will say.

As we go into the election,
I.
Can.
Be.
Wrong.

2) I was dead on in 2016 calling Trump at "between 300 & 320 EVs . .

2) contd . . . and the final was 306.

I missed the 2018 House, but nailed the 2018 Senate calling all four of the pickups, but missed McSally by 1/2.

3) NONE of what I do is based on polls.

4) ALL of what I do is on non-polling metrics.

5) Primarily I rely on trends of voter registration, plus, of course, actual voter registration #s. These are the single best predictors of a vote.

6) On a secondary level I look at primary turnout, then, beyond that, I look at trends in special elections, state elections, etc.

7) I have seen nothing in the last two years that changed my forecast that President Trump will win with between 320 and 340 EVs. This is based on him holding ALL 2016 states & added MN and NH.

8) I could be wrong. But I could also be very low.
Demented Perv Biteme . . .

8) contd . . . could drive Trump's #s up to over 350 EVs. After that, I can't see Trump getting more EVs without a major DemoKKKrat Party meltdown.

9) That's why analyzing the vote by mail returns now (VBM) is important. It is a key indicator of voter enthusiasm. BUT, . . .

9) contd . . . given the finite pool of D registered voters, it also gives us targets. If Ds are "voted out" on election day in NC or FL, they are screwed if their leads aren't sufficient. We saw this in FL in 2016.

10) Remember, also, a RETURNED ballot is not an ACCEPTED ballot

11) All ballots that are returned aren't valid. Many (perhaps 2% or more) are kicked out. This is important as it could amount to 10,000-15,000 votes in FL alone.

12) Another metric to watch is "Yut" turnout (My Cousin Vinny). I have contended since July that this # would be low

13) Closed campuses do not allow for DemoKKKrat operators & agitators to mobilize large numbers of students.

In NC ALREADY we are seeing this VBM number way down, suggesting DemoKKKRats cannot make up in VBM what they will lose on campus.

14) Likewise, it appears African-American DemoKKKrat votes are down from 2016 (when in NC & FL they were already down 3% from 2012).

Remember this is likely to be on top of 12-15% of black voters who are still DemoKKKrats but who will be voting Trump.

15) "Yeah, Schweikart % this & decline that, but what does it really mean??"

Try this. If the student shortfall materializes as I expect; and if the black shortfall/Trump vote is 15% or higher combined,

We are looking at a D shortfall from 2016 of 3-5 MILLION voters.

16) Cankles won the popular vote by about 3 million.

Now, you can draw your own conclusion.

17) And all this is without increased R turnout and/or increased D-vote-R crossover for Trump.

THIS is why I am confident.

I. Can. Be. Wrong.

But I'm pretty confident this is heading for a massive Trump victory, including a popular vote victory, regardless of the Hoax Polls.