A few thoughts on the parliamentary elections in Kyrgyzstan and the whole experiment of a strong parliamentary system since 2010.

Looks like 3-4 parties were able to cross the 7% threshold: Birimdik, Mekenim Kyrgyzstan, Kyrgyzstan, and *still likely* Butun Kyrgyzstan. THREAD

These are the 3rd parliamentary elections since 2010 when the constitution adopted following the ouster of Bakiyev was a broad consensus between rival political parties to establish rules for fair competition.

It worked in 2010: Election results were mostly representative.

Five political parties were able to crosse the 5% threshold nation-wide and now were learning to coexist and even deliberate legislature. When Atambayev was elected president he quickly reasserted presidential powers, but the parliament then was still a force to reckon with.

Parliamentary elections in 2015 were similarly competitive and local election monitors were mostly concerned with parties’ busing of voters and ballot box staffing. Several major political parties planted their observers across the country to preempt fraud by rivals.

In 2015, six parties were able to cross the now higher required 7% threshold and results again were largely perceived as legitimate, despite many reports of violations and even violence election day.

Campaigning gained some sophistication, incl televised debates.

So both in 2010 and 2015 most influential political parties that were expected to win, won. All parties were closely associated with their leaders: Atambayev (SDPK), Babanov (Republika), Tekebayev (Ata-Meken), etc. None had clear ideological divides and all were internally split

By then it was also apparent that a representative parliament =/= more democratic legislature. Lots of laws limiting civic and economic freedoms were passed

Atambayev and then Jeenbekov were seizing more political control, often capitalizing on parties’ lack of internal cohesion

Partly as a reaction to a weak parliament ready to adopt undemocratic legislature and refrain from condemning corruption or improve economy, new political colations were forming both within existing parties (Bir Bol and Ata-Meken) and new ones — most excitingly — Reforma.

This year’s elections were the most competitive and sophisticated in messaging, also the least tied to specific individuals (though big names were still involved in the background) and most prepared for transparent process thanks to biometric voting through fingerprints.

But the two leading parties that won vast majority of seats - Birimdik (pro-president Jeenbekov) and Mekenim Kyrgyzstan (supported by notoriously corrupt Matraimov) prevailed thanks to voter handouts.

>>>Thus, with sophistication of campaigning and greater diversity of political forces in 2020, corruption prevailed and now some 11 political parties and their supporters are demanding new elections.

This is a critical moment for Kyrgyzstan. <<<

Kyrgyzstan’s parliamentary system to date has been imperfect, but constantly evolving.

As dramatic as it sounds, now is the moment when we’ll see further evolution of the parliamentary experiment or return to ‘street politics against autocratic government’ cycles of the 2000s.

For more insights and smart analysis follow @kloopnews, @DinaraOM, @azim_azimovv, @ser_ou_parecer, @Kaarmanbek, @_niyazova, @RaevAidar, @Azat25, @n_akylbek, @VeneraSagyn

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