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I'll try give a better representation of deaths lagging behind infection, by charting the progression of a few countries from when they were at the same 14-day incidence that Ireland are at today.
Ireland's 14-day incidence was 108.0 per 100,000 on October 3rd.
The progression of disease to reach 108.0 was incremental, whereas an example of exponential growth would be the situation in Northern Ireland.
I'll try show the lag period in Czech Republic and France.
The progression of disease to reach 108.0 was incremental, whereas an example of exponential growth would be the situation in Northern Ireland.
I'll try show the lag period in Czech Republic and France.
On September 14th, Czech Republic (Czechia) had a 14-day incidence of 111.0 per 100,000.
The trajectory of their growth was incremental like Ireland today.
Aug 18: 30.0
Aug 25: 34.6
Sep 1: 41.5
Sep 7: 58.5
Then it suddenly exploded:
Sep 14: 111.0
Sep 21: 198.0
Sep 28: 266.8
The trajectory of their growth was incremental like Ireland today.
Aug 18: 30.0
Aug 25: 34.6
Sep 1: 41.5
Sep 7: 58.5
Then it suddenly exploded:
Sep 14: 111.0
Sep 21: 198.0
Sep 28: 266.8
Ok so between September 7th and 14th their infection took off and grew rapidly.
Deaths, on the other hand, did not.
14-day cumulative deaths per 100,000:
Sep 7: 0.2 (exponential growth starts)
Sep 14: 0.3
Sep 21: 0.5
Sep 28: 1.4 (a lot of people start dying)
Oct 4: 2.0
Deaths, on the other hand, did not.
14-day cumulative deaths per 100,000:
Sep 7: 0.2 (exponential growth starts)
Sep 14: 0.3
Sep 21: 0.5
Sep 28: 1.4 (a lot of people start dying)
Oct 4: 2.0
On September 7th, France had a 14-day incidence of 122.2 per 100,000.
The trajectory of their growth was steep from August 25th onwards.
Sep 7: 122.2
Sep 14: 153.9
Sep 21: 192.5
Sep 28: 235.0
The trajectory of their growth was steep from August 25th onwards.
Sep 7: 122.2
Sep 14: 153.9
Sep 21: 192.5
Sep 28: 235.0
14-day cumulative deaths per 100,000:
Sep 7: 0.3 (accelerates here)
Sep 14: 0.5
Sep 21: 0.8
Sep 28: 1.2 (4-fold increase in deaths since Sep 7)
Oct 4: 1.4
So again you see there isn't an immediate impact on death but it does happen a little down the road.
Sep 7: 0.3 (accelerates here)
Sep 14: 0.5
Sep 21: 0.8
Sep 28: 1.2 (4-fold increase in deaths since Sep 7)
Oct 4: 1.4
So again you see there isn't an immediate impact on death but it does happen a little down the road.
There's a few factors in deaths lagging behind cases.
1) This is not an illness that kills people quickly. It can but typically it slowly drowns you in your own lungs.
2) As infection grows more widespread, more older people start to get it. And then deaths accelerate.
1) This is not an illness that kills people quickly. It can but typically it slowly drowns you in your own lungs.
2) As infection grows more widespread, more older people start to get it. And then deaths accelerate.
Taking all that into account, Ireland's recent case load in the over 85's, over 75's, over 65's in the last 3 weeks will probably start translating to increased mortality in the coming weeks.
I don't know how many for October, because our actions can mitigate it, but a lot.
I don't know how many for October, because our actions can mitigate it, but a lot.
The question is do you wait until we reach those death levels to act or act preemptively.
Paris is not far off full lockdown and there's a National State of Emergency in the Czech Republic.
Idea behind a Level 5 is to act drastically before they die - to keep more alive.
Paris is not far off full lockdown and there's a National State of Emergency in the Czech Republic.
Idea behind a Level 5 is to act drastically before they die - to keep more alive.
