Read on Twitter
Due to the technical problems with under-reporting of cases, which has led to more than 22,000 cases being reported today (which date from 25/9 to 2/10), it is increasingly difficult to follow the pattern of the UK outbreak from the new cases data. 1/
Hospital admissions and deaths data still far more reliable, even though they are lagged by 2-3 week. As Boris Johnson said today, we are in for some very difficult, bumpy times coming up. On hospital admissions, firstly, the rise is troubling 2/
Latest healthcare figures - https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/healthcare - show 324 new admissions in the last 24 hours. This trend is rising quite steeply from a slow uptick in the middle of September. Due to the progression of Covid-19, this is the result of the very sharp spike in new cases in the
first week of September. It was that first week of Sept which spooked ministers/scientists because it was the first real switch from cases in younger age groups - during August - to older age groups in week up to 5/9, and made them introduce rule of six on 14/9. So I am afraid 4/
to say that this hospital figure is likely to keep rising for a few more days. Similarly, the new deaths reported for each day is starting to increase. The question is, due to better treatments compared to March/April, can more of those hospital admissions lead to better outcomes
& fewer deaths? It is too early to say, but this is what govt scientists have said they expect. Another point is that the most reliable surveys on new cases - the ONS survey which tests 100s of 1000s of people regardless of symptoms, and isn't affected by fluctuations in testing
- has most recently reported a fall in cases in the third week of September, days after the rule of six was introduced. It is two weeks behind, but highly reliable. Yet another unanswered question: will this downward trend continue? What we are seeing in the data is awful, but
is this the manifestation of a sharp, short, September spike which was brought under control by the rule of six? Too early to tell. Another unanswered question: have the *new* local lockdown measures had any effect, that we will see in a couple of weeks? Why have no other local
lockdowns had an impact on case numbers except Luton? To sum up, the 22k figure is alarming, but doesn't tell us enough about the pattern of the outbreak. The newest hospital figures are also alarming, but do not necessarily mean the same trajectory for deaths as in April
and finally, it is still possible - though not confirmed - that there was a September spike that is now, hopefully, relenting. /ends
