1 in 4 chance of death: In UK RECOVERY trial of Dexamethasone— #COVID19 mortality rate in TREATMENT group (got dexamethasone) for patients needing O2 was 23.3% (vs. 26.2% in patients w/out dexamethasone).

Dexamethasone is not magic bullet.

Still ~1 in 4 risk of death https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1312793319299256326

2) Notice that dexamethasone doesn’t work for people not on O2 in RECOVERY trial. It works a little for people on O2 (18% cut in death risk). And it really cuts risk for people on ventilators (36% reduced death risk). This is a serious late illness #COVID19 drug.

3) the only think I’m thinking is that maybe WH doctors at Walter Reed were more aggressive in using dexamethasone than in UK. Welcome UK NHS doctors who treat Covid here if 93-94 O2 warrants immediately. oxygen in NHS typically. But Trump is older than Recovery trial patients.

4) Mean age in RECOVERY trial of dexamethasone was 65-67. Trump is much older than that average at age 74. And 60% of people got O2.

That said nobody in RECOVERY had extra drugs like Regeneron’s monoclonal antibody.

5) Dear journalists—please don’t let any pundits say Dexamethasone is some amazing miracle #COVID19 drug.

does *NOT* work if not on O2 in RECOVERY trial. (even trends higher risk)

cuts risk only -18% for people on O2 alone

cuts death risk a lot if on ventilators (-36%)

6) This also implies that Trump’s doctor should NOT be overly aggressive in giving dexamethasone too early in illness. Data says you can’t simply use it as some “kitchen sink” approach. Thus, if they used it, Trump’s illness must be pretty dire.

7) Another finding is that dexamethasone, when used too soon has no effect on mortality usually if patient is <7 days *since symptom onset*. Means either 2 things:

A. Trump either got sick really REALLY damn fast (faster than typical 7 days)

B. Trump diagnosed much earlier

8) As @sciencecohen further points out, giving dexamethasone too early can “shoot yourself in the foot” and weaken the immune system in actuality. So if Conley gave it too early, he might be endangering Trump’s life. https://twitter.com/sciencecohen/status/1312852480632541184