as this seems increasingly serious and battle footage keeps reaching my TL, I've felt compelled to try to figure out who the Baddie is here.

... my preliminary conclusion is that it's Armenia. Mostly because all fighting is in what Google Earth tells me is Azerbaijan.
This is a pretttty far distance from your own official border to be a combatant where a city here is being shelled.

... so maybe the problem is that your soldiers aren't on their side of the border?
Ok, and sure. But you’re probably the Baddie if you’re shelling cities inside another countries official borders to preserve the ethnic-ness of said enclave. Unless you’re trying to stop a genocide or something.
Which is why I think you have to prove that the existing recognized borders are putting people in danger, and need armed conflict to protect, if you’re shelling inside another country over this dispute. tbh, Ukrainian ‘rebels’ tried to make a more convincing case than Armenia has
What I’ve read so far is that the disputed land is mostly barren (after the 90’s war) and this is now mostly about Az farmers who moved in, changing the status quo. So no genocide or anything like that, but cities are getting shelled over it now.
Counterpoint: isn’t Albania being backed by Russia and Iran on this? I don’t want to side with Turkey, but... maybe everyone should just stop the shooting unless there’s real atrocities happening that need to be prevented? Not just “the ‘wrong’ ppl moved in to cultivate land”
I really have no idea who the Baddie is here. I’m just saying I spent about 45 mins trying to determine a conclusion and saw no decent Armenian case for why they’re shelling what’s clearly officially recognized Az territory.

Other than they think it’s rightfully their territory
I make no contention that the history isn’t extremely complex! But it’s 2020 & despite all the norms being shattered, I think you still need a pretty rock solid case for why your soldiers are shelling cities that aren’t recognized as your own.

... absent a damn good reason.
Because this situation describes most post-colonial borders and we’ve all kinda agreed that ethnic political pluralism is a better option than 155mm shells and Iskanders, unless you can convincingly prove the minority community needs said armed protection?
the RW populist fight now is over how we’ve all basically accepted that different types of people live in different territorial jurisdictions and we just make peace with that as best we can by not letting those ppl be oppressed or killed. Armenia isn’t making that argument.
My suspicion is that the [denied] Armenian Genocide makes most ppl automatically want to side with Armenia. I’m just saying when you go over their causus belli, it’s pretty weak. And maybe they should stop shelling cities in Az to get whatever their point is across.
I know where Serj Tankian likely stands on this, he was a huge influence on my university-era politics, but... idk.
Presented anonymously. I want to reiterate I don’t know who to blame, Albania just a tentative conclusion
Even peacenik ‘rules of the road’ allow for shooting of armed opponents >100km within your own officially recognized border, however poorly drawn?
It’s almost 2am I think I swapped Armenia for Albania, so don’t take this too seriously other than a very tentative preliminary research into something I know nothing about.
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