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One of the lessons of Trump and co. getting #COVID19 is that it shows the limits of unfocused, widespread testing of anyone regardless if they show symptoms or not or had an exposure risk or not, to tamp down the spread of the novel coronavirus. (thread)
Public health experts, including @mustafahirji and others, have said repeatedly that a problem with asymptomatic testing is that, because it takes time for enough virus to build up in person to be detected, they can miss positive cases.
So if was infected with the virus yesterday, and tested today, it is highly likely it will be negative. The virus has not had enough time to reproduced enough to be detected by the test. A few days later, when I show symptoms a will be positive for #COVID19.
There has been an idea lurking around for a while now that more testing = better. The reality is testing at the right time is what you need. That means LOTS of tests and huge lab capacity. It does not mean, just test everyone because an asymptomatic test may not reveal anything.
In Niagara, we actually saw this debate reach @NiagaraRegion council, when a couple of business men asked council to support their "plan" to build a local lab that would test the entire Niagara population in 50 days. https://www.stcatharinesstandard.ca/news/niagara-region/2020/05/18/analysis-inside-the-politics-of-covid-19-at-niagara-region.html
The expert opinion at the time was A) The plan was logistically and hilariously impossible and B) Widespread testing of people with no symptoms would effectively be useless.
Some of the political opinion on regional council, echoing what was going on the US, was different.
Some of the political opinion on regional council, echoing what was going on the US, was different.
Ranking council members, including the mayors of NOTL and Niagara Falls, dismissed both the facts in favour of a generic idea that we needed to "ramp up testing" and a lab would be a "great opportunity" for the region. The details, they said, could be worked out later.
Putting aside the fact that this super lab idea has essentially banished to the ether, let's assume that it came to pass and by some miracle 450,000 people could be tested and results processed in 50 days, what would it show?
As the Trump example demonstrates, probably not much.
As the Trump example demonstrates, probably not much.
By all accounts the #COVID19 testing regime around the president and his people is extraordinary. No one can see the prez without a test and he and his staff are tested regularly, perhaps daily. So if that is so, why did this testing system fail to protect the president?
The answer, in part, is because a test done too close to the point of infection shows a false negative. That creates a false picture of #COVID19 in a person or group. It's the same reason why the @niagararegion plan to test LTC residents may be faulty. https://www.stcatharinesstandard.ca/news/niagara-region/2020/09/23/plan-to-protect-long-term-care-home-residents-from-covid-19-falls-short-says-hirji.html
The other problem, as we have also reported almost since the start of the pandemic, is that unfocused testing can lead people to assume they are safe and don't need masks, or distancing or hand hygiene. The truth is, though, they are no more safe than before they got a test.
If the test is too early, it will miss a real infection. If the test is a true negative, all that means is the person is negative at that point. But they are still vulnerable to infection and have to still follow infection reduction protocols.
Finally, also as we and others have reported, widespread asymptomatic testing can contribute to a back log in the labs, resulting in slower results, which can directly impact vital contact tracing.
Testing is critically important to identify cases, get people isolated and get them medical attention. But it is not a shield and if done improperly, can contribute to bad outcomes, like the US president contracting the virus.
This is why distancing, masks, hygiene and staying home when sick is being pushed so hard by public health experts.
Be safe, be smart, and be kind.
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Be safe, be smart, and be kind.
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