A check-in on how @IHME_UW COVID-19 projections are doing. (Spoiler: they& #39;re still completely awful).
A month ago I tweeted about IHME& #39;s latest projection for Sweden. Let& #39;s revisit those projections... (1/5) https://twitter.com/yinonw/status/1302396409774108672">https://twitter.com/yinonw/st...
A month ago I tweeted about IHME& #39;s latest projection for Sweden. Let& #39;s revisit those projections... (1/5) https://twitter.com/yinonw/status/1302396409774108672">https://twitter.com/yinonw/st...
A month ago IHME projected 180 deaths/day by Dec 1 and 20 deaths/day by Oct 1.
Instead by Oct 1st Sweden is at 1 death per day for the entire country. As reminder, masks are not worn and primary schools and businesses never closed at any time in the pandemic. (2/5)
Instead by Oct 1st Sweden is at 1 death per day for the entire country. As reminder, masks are not worn and primary schools and businesses never closed at any time in the pandemic. (2/5)
So how has IHME updated their projections from this "surprising" result?
Instead of learning from reality and adjusting their models, they assume reality is wrong and their models are right. They simply shifted everything back another month.
New projection below. (3/5)
Instead of learning from reality and adjusting their models, they assume reality is wrong and their models are right. They simply shifted everything back another month.
New projection below. (3/5)