THREAD (Sorry)

Having tweeted about independence and @YesCymru earlier, I've had a fair bit of interest.

So, here's where I am on independence... 1/

Why would I even consider Welsh independence? I'm not a patriot. I'm not a nationalist. I'm half Welsh, half English. The Hern family came from Ireland.

I love Welsh culture, Cymraeg and, sure, rugby but is that a reason for independence? 2/

The union hasn't worked out well for Wales. Never has. Wealth has flowed out of Wales and little has come in return.

Since 78 UK govts have used the Barnett formula to allocate devolved funds - ignoring the needs of Wales. Even Joel Barnett thinks it's wrong. 3/

Meanwhile, we have a govt that rides roughshod over devolved issues - talking about a Newport bypass that the Senedd has already rejected and undermining Welsh public health messages. 4/

These things could be resolved - with a change of govt and attitude from Westminster. The question is - will they?

For years, Wales have voted for Labour. Labour can rely on Wales whilst Tories more or less written off that support. There's little incentive to focus on Wales. 5/

I believe that Wales would do a better job of managing its own destiny than Westminster.

But I also voted to remain in the EU. Sovereignty alone isn't enough. A lot of the harsh realities of Brexit would also affect indy Wales. 6/

That's the only thing preventing me from embracing independence. Indy would introduce friction in trade with the UK - giving similar issues to NI - plus tariffs.

We could seek to rejoin EU - but doing that almost guarantees no deal with UK. 7/

And that's my only reservation really.

Do the financial challenges of trade friction with UK outweigh membership with the EU? If so, does the control over our own fortunes offset the pain that would cause?

Increasingly, I'm finding the answer to be "probably". /end