Horse race thread, one month away from election day. Looking at expected mail-in vote, polling of states with more than 60% certainty in various simulations, this is my guess for what the map will look like on Wednesday morning Nov. 4th.

While a Biden Electoral college Landslide is possible -- about as possible as a narrow Tr*mp win -- because of the lopsided nature of the EC -- even a popular vote landslide could produce a map looking like this.

Biden will have more votes in virtually every state than Clinton did in 2016, so the popular vote margin is just a matter of how much, not who. Everybody pretty much has settled on that.

In the "we won't know" category of remaining EC votes to be determined, I expect Georgia and Florida will go to Tr*mp, based largely on the recent and consistent pattern of vote cheating by the GOP in those states. With Kemp and DeSantis at their helms, they'll find a way.

North Carolina may be a genuine toss-up. It's trending blue and it was an Obama '08 state and despite the crooked districting and GOP majority it has a D governor; but it would be foolish to call it on that basis given the polling.

There are scenarios for Biden winning where he loses Pennsylvania, but virtually none (credible) for Tr*mp to win without Pennsylvania. Ergo I believe the results in PA will basically call the election, though of course not necessarily the dead ending by the GOP that will follow.

If you see North Carolina or Ohio go to Biden election night, he's won. Florida or Georgia will be late-decided even if they go to Biden in the end (see above, re: cheating; part of it will be delaying results.)

Maine 2 and Nebraska 2 both poll very favorably for Biden right now but aren't in that degree of certainty of the states as a whole. As bellwethers, though, if they both go to Biden, that's also a strong sign the night will go well, but they're meaningless on the big board.

If the election goes down to either one of these sole Electoral College votes, you can bet the GOP will cheat its way to victory somehow. So I'm not really going to pay that much attention to them.

The flip side are New Hamsphire and Nevada. New Hampshire is 93% white and of the Clinton states from 2016 seems perpetually like the state dangling on the precipice. It's a battle of newcomers in the south voting vs the Tr*mp loyalists who popped up all over the place in 2015.

Nevada I think has a much lower chance of flipping, but nowhere are the demographic shifts of the pandemic more unknowable, given the importance of the hospitality industry to the Democratic base there. So it's a late-closing state but also potential heart-breaker.

if NH goes to Tr*mp it's only 4 EVs but Biden will have to pickup up OH, NC, FLA, or GA or the election will be close enough that post-election shenanigans will definitely be a thing because the margins will be close enough that turning 2 states by crooked means will be in play.

All of this discounts the possibility of major election day disruptions at the polling places, and the rise of Covid in Wisconsin makes the large polling margin more questionable.

Insofar as Pennsylvania appears to be a target for Tr*mp-allied terrorists to try to intimidate voters, the margins here are going to come from the suburbs. So while I don't discount disruptions in Philly, I don't think they'll be successful in turning that count.

All this to get back to my thesis: odds are still good we'll have a clear winner the morning after. When Pennsylvania goes blue the election is over. If any of the in-play states on my map goes clearly blue, the odds of a large Electoral College margin for Biden go way up.

PS: this is the nightmare map. There are credible scenarios of Biden winning by a margin of 10% in the popular vote but the map still looking like this. The two individual vote states come into play. Forcing a map like this based on slow mail ballot counting is probably...

...the only viable strategy for Tr*mp at this point - exploit weak voter protections in NC and WI, count on white voters in Ohio and crooked governors in GA and FL, and hope for help from the Red team in charge of the Arizona state government....

...and they'd have to be aided by close margins in NH, Nevada, or a more distant possibility, MI or PA to stage their attempted coup-by-the-courts, where a flip would overcome (likely) clean recounts in Nebraska-2 and Maine-2.

I don't really think this is likely given the co-factors at work, but in terms of prognosticating, this is the scenario that seems most likely to result in an outright break of civil order and Constitutional government. It's the 1876 scenario, basically.