Thread #Covid19 is not just creeping back quietly in many parts of Canada. Some argue that higher numbers simply reflect more testing. Others argue fewer (proportionately) getting sick or dying vs 1st wave. Some facts 1/ https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/tracking-every-case-of-covid-19-in-canada-1.4852102
The test positivity rate is indeed lower than in the spring when it peaked at 11% in April. It is now 2% but much "dilution" due to ⬆️ proportion of kids tested vs spring when schools were shut down. Note %+ve now ⬆️in older age groups = trouble ahead 2/
This heat map shows clearly where this wave is being driven by age group. Highest (4.6%) of new cases are < 40 and now "leaking"(2.5%) into more vulnerable older age groups. This will continue to worsen without immediate change in transmission patterns 3/
Hospitalizations, ICU admissions ARE back. Deaths will follow. Again. Many hospitals, including largest in Canada where I work @UHN had ZERO cases not long ago.

Current Ontario data:
https://www.ontario.ca/page/how-ontario-is-responding-covid-19
Hospitalized (155)
ICU (41)
Ventilator (23)
4/
LTC outbreaks are BACK. Most vulnerable segment of our community will once again bear the brunt of 2nd wave in morbidity, mortality. They have not been socializing or going to school. #Covid19 entered via the community. Again. 5/
Young people don't get sick though right? Wrong. Some do die. And, not being in hospital/ICU isn't captured by data. Nor chronic, debilitating symptoms that follow initial illness (chest pain, ++ fatigue, joint pain, memory deficits, etc.) #Longhaulers 6/
The argument that this is a milder disease now & economic health should be prioritized over human health is fallacious and unfounded. We don't know what the full impact of an unrestrained economy + flu/respiratory virus season + ongoing #Covid19 will be 7/
But we can look at recent history to reflect on key examples of looser restrictions and relative impact on mortality vs GDP. Can't think of a better example than the place that brought us ABBA, Bjorn Borg & Volvos. Judge for yourself. 8/
The idea that economic/social/mental/physical health are somehow mutually exclusive is too pedantic to be of constructive benefit. Complex determinants shape all of these but NONE can be sustained if a public health crisis goes on unabated 9/
Would posit that we avoid the "either/or" POVs and aim for the meet in the middle approach
- TARGETED restrictions on businesses
- financial relief for those affected
- FIRM public health guidance
- collective accountability for our decisions 10/
Totally unrelated but I just think this guy is pretty awesome & increasingly in conversation as GOAT. He is #SuperHuman #DoitForKobe 11/ END thread
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