I'm not gonna stop sweating until Biden is sworn in. And if you have a vote PLEASE use it - do not be complacent.

That said, I've been looking at the chances.

Lots of people fear 2016 again, but the data shows this time is significantly better for us (i.e. not Trump)

Thread

First of all, the national lead for Biden FAR exceeds the one for Clinton in 2016. In fact, except for Bill Clinton, its the biggest Democrat lead for 52 years, including Obama - which was a landslide win

(Chart below is an average of major polls)

Secondly, compare the national polls at the same point in 2016. The day before the first debate, Clinton ran 2% ahead of Trump in an average of the top 10 leading polling organisations.

Biden runs 8% ahead.

When reading these numbers remember: pollsters have a margin for error, typically 3%

So if Clinton was 2% ahead, the 3% error could give Trump a narrow 1% lead.

A 3% error this year still gives Biden a 5% lead. That's big enough to win comfortably at national level.

In 2016 Trump lost the popular vote but won key states, and that secured him victory in the Electoral College system.

So let's look at those key states, remembering Trump needs them ALL to repeat his 2016 win.

In Oct 2016, Wisconsin and Pennsylania had Trump 1% ahead, and he won a razor-thin victory. Today he polls 6% behind in both.

In fact, of 17 key battleground states Trump must win, he only leads in 3. He's 10% behind in some. And he must win them all.

You might worry the polls will shift, that they're erratic.

But the polls are far more settled this year than they were in 2016. Far more minds made up.

And in the absence of normal campaigning (even before Trump got Covid) there is little that could change minds.

You might worry polls are wrong again.

In 2016 pollsters under-represented Trump voters (especially older, uneducated white men).

This has been addressed now, and most polls are ensure those people are questioned and represented too.

You might think there's a hidden store of Trump supporters.

But uniquely (since polling began in 1937) Trump has never - not once - had more than 50% approval rating. And his average approval rating is 40%.

So 60% of voters disapproved of him for 4 years. That won't change

You might think people simply won't turn out to vote due to Covid. But a study by University of Virginia found postal voting actually increases voter numbers (mostly due to the huge queues often found at US polling stations, which deter in-person voters)

The same study found postal ballots don't give a measurable advantage to either party.

So assuming all the other data mentioned in this thread are correct, postal ballots still don't rescue Trump. He's still 8% behind.

You might worry Trump will get a bounce due to being diagnosed with Covid. Obviously, no comparative data on this.

But compare with Johnson. He got an up-swing when he was ill. But it lasted barely 2 weeks before returning to previous levels.

And it coincided with a general upswing for the UK govt, caused by people rallying around them at the beginning of the pandemic. Johnson's poll numbers benefitted from that "background bounce"

But this isn't the beginning of the pandemic. There's no bounce in the USA.

Unlike Johnson when he fell ill, Trump has spent months denying / ignoring the pandemic. So the response won't be the sympathy Johnson recieved, it'll be schadenfreude. His media backers might plea for sympathy, but they have too much legacy of refusing it to others.

Trump can't campaign for 2 weeks. Much of his core team is also out of action - sick, isolated, etc. So if there was a political advantage to be taken from this, they aren't in much of a position to take it.

Biden is limited too, but he can afford to be, with a big lead.

Just a reminder: I'm simply commenting on the politics of the situation, not on Trump's health. So don't @ me about playing politics, cos that's EXACTLY what political parties do. All of them. The Republicans are war-gaming this right now, bet your last dime.

So to conclude: nothing is certain, but compared to Hillary, Biden is 4x further ahead nationally, and leads in 14 of 17 states Trump must win. His lead is more stable, and Trump and his team are unlikely to benefit from his illness.

I'm quietly confident, but not complacent.