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#Iran& #39;s policy towards the #NagornoKarabakh conflict has been unsurprisingly complex & ambivalent, which arises from a set of competing geopolitical interests and security concerns. Some thoughts in this short #thread: 1/8
Iran& #39;s "declaratory" positions on the conflict are largely different from the policy measures it is adopting in practice. Following historical precedent, Rouhani-Zarif have opted for a neutral "hands off" stance & offered to help deescalate the tensions 2/ https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2020/09/iran-calm-tensions-armenia-azerbaijan-zarif-nagorno-karabakh.html">https://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/ori...
Meanwhile, Khamenei& #39;s representatives in 4 predominantly Turkish-populated provinces of #Iran have voiced support for #Azerbaijan& #39;s efforts to end "occupation" of #NagornoKarabakh, calling its actions to "recapture" it "completely lawful & legitimate." 3/ https://www.bbc.com/persian/iran-54342771">https://www.bbc.com/persian/i...
In practice, however, #Iran sides with #Armenia and its powerful partner #Russia for a number of reasons:
Tehran cannot afford to alienate Moscow at a time when it needs Russian support in the face of US maximum pressure, at the UNSC, and for possible arms trade. 4/
Tehran cannot afford to alienate Moscow at a time when it needs Russian support in the face of US maximum pressure, at the UNSC, and for possible arms trade. 4/
The prevailing perception in Tehran is that #Azerbaijan& #39;s recapture & control of #NagornoKarabakh will likely fuel Turkish/Azeri separatist sentiments & ambitions in #Iran& #39;s adjacent provinces in northwest, which could threaten its national security & territorial integrity. 5/
#Turkey& #39;s intervention in the #NagornoKarabakh conflict in general and its deployment of Islamist militants from #Syria in particular are gravely complicating the geopolitical & security dynamics in South Caucasus, threatening to widen the conflict & hampering deescalation. 6/
Tehran sees Turkey& #39;s (para)military intervention in support of #Azerbaijan an attempt to extend its sphere of influence in Iran& #39;s immediate neighborhood to the north. An Azeri-controlled #NagornoKarabakh might thus mean deep Turkish & Israeli presence around Iranian borders. 7/
These seem to be why Iran supports #Azerbaijan *in rhetoric* and basically pays lip service to its territorial rights while *in practice* it tries to assist #Armenia and facilitate its war effort to preserve the status quo. 8/8
