Just a reminder that Biden has a significant and steady lead on Trump. There's really no reason to expect this to change -- whether Trump campaigns or not. Biden hovering at 50%, and Trump at 43%.

Trump has virtually no chance to win the EC if he loses the popular vote by 5+.

I've tweeted before that my guess is that Trump ends up plus 2 from wherever he is in the polls. That puts him at 45%. Even if Biden sticks at 50% he almost assuredly wins.

My soft and early prediction is Biden 52% and Trump 45%.

Very possible that Trump is more competitive in several swing states than he appears today. May win a few. But it's really unlikely he's able to thread the needle again like he did in 2016. Especially when losing by a larger margin nationally.

I was on Biden early as the right choice for DEMs. He has the ability to compete with Trump in areas where the rest of the DEM candidates would have been less popular. And Trump offsets some of Biden's most glaring weaknesses.

LOL. This dude tweeted me over this thread (telling me the polls are fake) and then immediately blocked me before I could respond. That's weak.