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I have uncovered details of Disney's contracts that allow me to predict which titles will be pulled from #DisneyPlus next. On October 1st, they unprofessionally removed films w/o warning (as always). Cinderella (2015) left after 1 month. Herbie Fully Loaded (2005) left as well.
I will use this thread to share my predictions for those worried about future titles leaving. Bottom line is: it's not good. Titles are going to be leaving monthly until 2030s and $DIS doesn't want you to know, which is why they are the only streaming service which doesn't warn.
Almost certainly heading to Starz in 2021:
Secretariat (2010)
John Carter (2012)
Oz the Great and Powerful (2013) (Starz also refuses to let it on #DisneyPlus USA until it goes back.)
Maleficent (2014)
Cinderella (2015)
Secretariat (2010)
John Carter (2012)
Oz the Great and Powerful (2013) (Starz also refuses to let it on #DisneyPlus USA until it goes back.)
Maleficent (2014)
Cinderella (2015)
These are called "Pay Two" windows. This is why POTC 4 (2011) left this year and why Million Dollar Arm (2014) has yet to be added.
Star Wars: Force Awakens (2015) and the pre-2015 MCU films I believe had their Starz Pay Two contracts voided by this deal https://www.theverge.com/2019/11/5/20941540/disney-plus-starz-ads-star-wars-force-awakens-espn-streaming-wars-licensing
Star Wars: Force Awakens (2015) and the pre-2015 MCU films I believe had their Starz Pay Two contracts voided by this deal https://www.theverge.com/2019/11/5/20941540/disney-plus-starz-ads-star-wars-force-awakens-espn-streaming-wars-licensing
As best as I can tell, all Disney films will have completed their "Pay Two" stays at Starz after these 5 I mentioned.
"Pay Two" means all films contracted to premiere on Starz after theatrical release pre-2015 when the deal ended must return ~6-10 years later for 15 months.
"Pay Two" means all films contracted to premiere on Starz after theatrical release pre-2015 when the deal ended must return ~6-10 years later for 15 months.
So yes, I am telling you that Maleficent which was added a couple days ago will be leaving in the next year again. Cinderella just now leaving after only one month stay confirmed that to me. #DisneyPlus content team REALLY needs to invest money in breaking contracts early.
My next predictions involve the films which will be leaving the service to go to HBO, much like Herbie Fully Loaded just left. Upon analyzing the films that have left for HBO this year I noticed some trends. The films are leaving because of this 2009 library deal. No end in sight
The following $DIS films left Disney+ for HBO Max this year:
Snow Dogs (2002)
Herbie Fully Loaded (2005)
The Pacifier (2005)
Flicka (2006)
Old Dogs (2009)
Enchanted (2007) and Shaggy Dog (2006) are missing from #DisneyPlus. Notice a trend?
Snow Dogs (2002)
Herbie Fully Loaded (2005)
The Pacifier (2005)
Flicka (2006)
Old Dogs (2009)
Enchanted (2007) and Shaggy Dog (2006) are missing from #DisneyPlus. Notice a trend?
They are victims of the same "black" period Oz the Great is suffering from in the Starz deal. It can be safely assumed next year Enchanted and Shaggy Dog will go to HBO Max.
This deal is awful for American #DisneyPlus and has no "end date" in sight. https://variety.com/2007/scene/markets-festivals/hbo-makes-library-deal-with-disney-1117974509/
This deal is awful for American #DisneyPlus and has no "end date" in sight. https://variety.com/2007/scene/markets-festivals/hbo-makes-library-deal-with-disney-1117974509/
There are still a lot of mysteries involved but it appears to guarantee 2-3 separate visits to HBO Max, each at least 1.5 years, for all films Disney released between 2000 - 2010. There is a possibility in the coming years films released from 2011-2015 will similarly be victims.
I have a suspicion Disney fully "bought out" any contracts for their Pixar, main line Disney animated pictures, MCU films, and Star Wars films but have allowed all "other" films to continue in the deal until it ends naturally. I'll predict which films I see leaving 2021 tonight.
Here are films I expect to leave #DisneyPlus for HBO in 2021:
Princess Diaries (2001)
Confessions of Teenage Drama Queen (2004)
Around the World in 80 Days (2004)
National Treasure (2004)
Ice Princess (2005)
Eight Below (2006)
Invincible (2006)
The Game Plan (2007)
#DisneyMinus
Princess Diaries (2001)
Confessions of Teenage Drama Queen (2004)
Around the World in 80 Days (2004)
National Treasure (2004)
Ice Princess (2005)
Eight Below (2006)
Invincible (2006)
The Game Plan (2007)
#DisneyMinus
The pattern is... films from 2000-2010 that are live action and have previously streamed on HBO prior to 2018. It appears HBO gets 2 - 3 stays per film from that decade.
#DisneyMinus #DisneyPlus #HBOMax
#LibraryDeals
#DisneyMinus #DisneyPlus #HBOMax
#LibraryDeals
EXCLUSIVE $DIS NEWS: I can confirm why Ice Age Continental Drift hasn't come to #DisneyPlus USA yet and also why Diary of a Wimpy Kid Dog Days was removed October 1st after only a few months. Both will be on HBO imminently. I cracked the Pay Two schedule for Fox's films.
Sadly, it looks like once a film completes its final stay at HBO / Cinemax it goes to Starz. If you scroll back you'll see most 2007-2009 films are on Starz or have recently left. This gives clear view of the trajectory Fox films take. Likely tied to this> https://variety.com/2013/film/news/starz-20th-century-fox-strike-vast-library-film-deal-1200569732/
EXCLUSIVE: Further look to the future. There are 4 films on #DisneyPlus right now that will leave in the next 36 months or so for HBO. All of which were just added this summer.
Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters
X-men Days of Future Past
The Fault in Our Stars
The Wolverine
Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters
X-men Days of Future Past
The Fault in Our Stars
The Wolverine
EXCLUSIVE: looking even further into future - unless Disney works out a deal in the next couple years Fantastic Four (2015) and The Peanuts Movie (2015) are guaranteed to leave for HBO for 2ish years each. $DIS #DIsneyPlus #DisneyMinus
#WhatTheyDontWantYouToKnow #PayTwoWindows
#WhatTheyDontWantYouToKnow #PayTwoWindows
Here are more films I expect to leave #DisneyPlus for HBO in 2021:
G-Force (2009)
Race to Witch Mountain (2009)
Bedtime Stories (2008)
Yes, i know those all came from Netflix during 2020 but I think they may go to HBO for a bit also. I hope I'm wrong.
G-Force (2009)
Race to Witch Mountain (2009)
Bedtime Stories (2008)
Yes, i know those all came from Netflix during 2020 but I think they may go to HBO for a bit also. I hope I'm wrong.
