How did #Armenia and #Azerbaijan get to this point? This thread brings together my short comments written April 2016-September 2020, mostly for @CHRussiaEurasia, but also @ips_journal, @OCMediaorg and @ValdaiClub. For a deeper background dive, see my book.
https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/global-powers-scramble-contain-neglected-armenian-azerbaijani-conflict">https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/co... The & #39;4-day war& #39; breaks out in April 2016.
https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/decisive-diplomacy-essential-securing-fragile-nagorny-karabakh-ceasefire">https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/co... What needed to happen after April 2016 - and didn& #39;t.
https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/time-honour-commitments-armenian-azerbaijani-peace">https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/co... From 2017: how the "Vienna-St Petersburg-Geneva" agenda for confidence-building and substantive talks was left to drift - along with others, I was calling for the Minsk Conference, eternally deferred, to finally be convened.
https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/after-armenia-s-velvet-revolution-new-look-karabakh-challenge">https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/co... After Armenia& #39;s Velvet Revolution in April 2018, there were expectations of a reset and a new opening - but deep structural and political obstacles remained.
https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/how-ready-are-armenia-and-azerbaijan-peace">https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/co... In January 2019 it looked some movement was possible: some minimal hotline and humanitarian cooperation was agreed, and the phrase "preparing populations for peace" emerged.
https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/armenia-and-azerbaijan-leadership-rapport-no-substitute-deepened-peace-process">https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/co... But by April 2019 it was clear that going beyond what I called "low-cost confidence building" to the more meaningful ceasefire support infrastructure and substantive political dialogue was not happening.
https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/armenia-and-azerbaijan-s-season-symbolic-offensives">https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/co... By the middle of 2020 we were witnessing a new deterioration in relations, after a disastrous public debate between the leaders in Munich.
https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/comment/new-fighting-brings-three-year-armenian-azerbaijani-truce-end">https://www.chathamhouse.org/expert/co... In July 2020, what had been effectively a de facto truce since the latter half of 2017 came to an end with a significant escalation in the area of the #Armenia- #Azerbaijan border.
https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlights/just-another-incident-or-an-evolving-status-quo/">https://valdaiclub.com/a/highlig... My reflections on the July 2020 escalation as auguring an inflection point in the conflict: "OSCE mediation efforts... are now challenged by global multipolarity featuring global and regional powers practising very different models of conflict resolution."
https://www.ips-journal.eu/regions/europe/countering-the-totalisation-of-the-armenian-azerbaijani-conflict-4624/">https://www.ips-journal.eu/regions/e... Published three weeks before war broke out, I, like many others, was concerned about the totalisation of the conflict and trying to see ways out.
https://oc-media.org/features/analysis-a-dangerous-turn-in-a-30-year-conflict">https://oc-media.org/features/... I& #39;ve already tweeted this out, but to bring us up to date here& #39;s my first analysis of the current war published 30/9. More to come. My thoughts are with all those in the line of fire today.