Don’t expect a breakdown or breakthrough from Boris Johnson’s meeting with Ursula von der Leyen today. But talks will almost certainly intensify.

Because time is running out and nobody wants to walk away - a thread on Brexit and deadlines. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/oct/02/is-there-still-time-for-a-brexit-trade-deal

The UK and EU have been negotiating a post-Brexit deal since March. Seven months and nine rounds later, talks are stuck on the same problems: level playing field, fish and dispute settlement. Now add new spanner in the works of UK internal market bill.
2.

Both sides agree there *has been progress* (E.g. UK participation in Erasmus, Horizon), even areas that were difficult a few months ago (social security coordination and police co-operation).
3.

The European commission stressed the positive when they briefed EU diplomats on Friday. “The gap is very much there, but it’s still open,” said one EU source.
4.

But without the fundamentals there isn’t a deal. Just as you wouldn’t sail in a 90% complete boat, EU negotiators will not shake hands on (for them) a 90% complete trade deal.
Painful compromises on both sides are required.
5.

The compromises for the UK on a level playing field, fish (lesser extent) and governance don’t square with the Vote Leave vision, that evoked Britain untrammelled by obligations.

The Irish border never crossed anyone’s mind.
6.

Boris Johnson has to decide if he is the Vote Leave PM or just a Leave PM. Is he ready for no-deal because he can’t get the Brexit of Vote Leave slogans, or will he go for a deal that means crossing red lines he has sworn not to cross?
7.

History suggests the latter (the two letters of 2016, the ‘dead in a ditch’ reversal on the Irish backstop 2019). And PM is under huge pressure not to risk even more economic chaos when lockdowns are hammering the economy.
8.

Big political choice 2: what are acceptable losses for the EU on fishing quotas. EU know the status quo cannot continue. Even the French in very private moments, I hear, although not yet even in EU meetings. But nobody knows what Emmanuel Macron’s bottom line is.
9.

Officials on both sides say they don’t expect fish to stand in the way of a deal. But there is very little time left to find a compromise. And the middle ground is as wide and murky as the North Sea.
10.

Logic points to a deal (both sides swerve an avoidable economic hit).

But nothing is inevitable until it happens* and the risk of running out of time is real.

*I stole that line from AJP Taylor.

And the perennial question from London? Who will play Leo Varadkar for the walk in the Wirral moment.
EU sources are adamant there won’t be. One diplomat: “There is no problem calling Merkel and Macron, but clearly they won’t negotiate.”
12.

EU officials say Varadkar comparison is wrong. If Ireland was happy with the Irish protocol, the 26 were happy. But squaring off trade deals with Macron or Merkel doesn’t guarantee that - all have a similar interest in LPF, but there is a divergent interest in fish.
13.

As obvious from today’s cast list, Ursula von der Leyen will be the contact person (as Jean-Claude Juncker was before her for Theresa May). But EU leaders will get more interested as the deadline looms.
14.

Angela Merkel’s comments at EU summit on “appropriate response” over-interpreted imo. Rather than push for common ground, sounded like restatement of what she has said many times before, with the usual caveat of 'it’s up to Britain'.
15.

Time is running out. UK wants a deal by EU summit 15/16 October. EU say late October, but could stretch early November at a pinch. Don’t underestimate the political and technical hurdles to get deal ratified. The deadline is real
16. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/sep/11/brexit-can-the-uk-and-eu-reach-a-deal-before-the-end-of-october

And I also have a deadline: my baby is due before any Brexit deal. So I’m stepping back from Brexit (and everything else).

When I return UK-EU will be in different phase. But just as EU never stands still, Brexit will never be quite done.

Thank you for following.