A consequential day (& next few weeks! for Brexit). A few thoughts. There is no chance of a “tunnel” next week. Gaps on substance too large. Instead, talks will move into a “restricted format”. This is a more intensive process, involving fewer officials from both sides 1/

Even in a best-case scenario, the 15-16 October Council will not deliver a deal, but could instruct @MichelBarnier to conclude one. A “tunnel” would then follow. In a worst case scenario, the EU27 will signal willingness to keep talking, but ramp up their no deal preparations 2/

Key question now is less about policy gaps & more abt political willingness. Both sides see parameters of deal. Question is, can they sell it if they do it? So for Bxl, purpose of today's call is to figure out if Johnson wants a deal - & is willing to concede ground to get one 3/

But this applies equally to EU too. The latest French polls show @EmmanuelMacron dipping sharply in public confidence, now 6 points down to 29%, given his Govt's handling of Covid-19. Can he now afford to sell out fish? The next few weeks will answer that question - for UK & EU