It’s important to understand what types of horses win horse races...

Which types of short priced horses win races and why?

Which types of long priced horses win races and why?

Build a “market within a market” of those types and I’d say we’ll be pretty close most times.

One of the biggest misnomers about betting on horse racing is that you have to pick the one horse that wins the race...

Wrong.

A race is just a market. You have to form a market from a market that gives you positive expected value when you play it

How “modelable” or “understandable” is horse racing?

We have 6-24 animals running in a circle around various types of courses. Then we try to define win probabilities for them.

That is a very chaotic, open system (for a market). Embrace the chaos, that’s where value is.

Let the modellers model.

Then bet onto the 40% unknowable chaos.

Remember entities like “the cliff detector” or “the variance monster”