1/7 This escalation in #Karabakh is likely for longer than many think. #Russia probably stands the best chance of brokering a ceasefire. But unlike to 2016, Russia has no offer to satisfy #Azerbaijan’s desire to capture territories in the conflict zone. https://bit.ly/3laSzns
2/7 During the 2016 escalation, Russia had its peace plan on the table: it discussed initial return of some territories to Baku's control with deployment of the Russian peacekeepers to the rest of Armenian-controlled parts, but no clarity over future #Karabakh status.
3/7 Baku liked the deal, which promised what it wanted. Despite pressure from Moscow, #Armenia would never agree with no clarity on status. We wrote the report that explained why the plan could never work even if Yerevan had signed to Russia-proposed deal. https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/caucasus/nagorno-karabakh-conflict/255-digging-out-deadlock-nagorno-karabakh
Digging out of Deadlock in Nagorno-Karabakh
If they move quickly, Armenia and Azerbaijan could break out of their long impasse over the disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. They could pursue quiet talks on thorny issues – settlements,...https://www.crisisgroup.org/europe-central-asia/caucasus/nagorno-karabakh-conflict/255-digging-out-deadlock-nagorno-karabakh
4/7 Despite all the military and political alliances with Armenia, Russia's been consistent in its intention not to take sides in the ongoing fighting. This probably comes from its unwillingness to cease relations with Azerbaijan, which is the biggest economy in the region.
5/7 In the past, Russian officials told me that would consider intervention if see mass deaths. So far the Armenian troops have been able to sustain Azerbaijan's attacks. Although the scale of fighting is getting bigger, particularly since early today.
6/7 #Turkey's unconditional support emboldens Azerbaijan to continue fighting "with all means" to reach the goal and capture territories. They've been allies for years. But now this very different, including with deployment of the Syrian fighters, confirmed by Russia and France.
7/7 Eventually ceasefire will have to happen. At least when Azerbaijan feels exhausted with its attacks. If fighting turns to proper Armenia, expect a major change to the situation. Unfortunately, this ceasefire will come at a great cost with many more casualties on both sides.