Thread by @JusBass, A lot of friends are sharing conspiracy-minded thinking today, so I just [...]

A lot of friends are sharing conspiracy-minded thinking today, so I just wanted to lovingly discuss the rational argument for how Trump’s diagnosis is highly predictable. (1/x)

*** 4 primary factors ***
- the number of people he comes in contact with each day
- the prevalence of infectious SARS-CoV2 in the population
- the precautions taken/not taken
- the number of days these risk factors persist (2/x)

The longer these factors persist, like the number of times you pull a slot machine, the more likely that an otherwise rare outcome (infection) will occur. Pretty simple. You can estimate the probabilities, but they’re well-documented:
https://www.theatlantic.com/.../white-house.../615841/ #COVID19 #CovidTrump

If you “believe” in science, it might also be valuable to look at the science of how our intuition can lead us to find coherence in otherwise random events:
https://fs.blog/2016/04/narrative-fallacy/
https://www.goodreads.com/en/book/show/11468377
#COVID19 #CovidTrump @kahneman_daniel

Avoiding Falling Victim to The Narrative Fallacy

Narrative Fallacy is a common cognitive bias that we all fall victim to at one point other another. Read this to learn what the narrative fallacy is and how to avoid falling victim to it's siren song.

https://fs.blog/2016/04/narrative-fallacy/

That said, let’s not fall for the hindsight fallacy: this wasn't *inevitable*, just *predictable*. (4/x) #COVID19 #CovidTrump

And for the evolving understanding of how transmission works, @Zeynep Tufekci and @alexismadrigal have been consistently on-point (source studies frequently linked within):
https://www.theatlantic.com/author/zeynep-tufekci/
https://www.theatlantic.com/.../k-overlooked.../616548/
https://www.nytimes.com/.../how-zeynep-tufekci-keeps... (5/5) #COVID19 #covidtrump

Zeynep Tufekci

The Atlantic covers news, politics, culture, technology, health, and more, through its articles, podcasts, videos, and flagship magazine.

https://www.theatlantic.com/author/zeynep-tufekci/

ADDENDUM: I hope it goes without saying that this thread is not intended to express anything with regards to karma or comeuppance. Like each of the nearly 35 million covid-19 cases worldwide, *no one deserves to fall victim to this disease*.

You can follow @JusBass.

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