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Wow. @genebsperling pointed out to me that Sept's spike in long-term unemp (seeking work for at least 6 mos)--781K was the largest 1-month increase on record. That holds as share of unemployed too, from 12 to 19%.
What does this portend? In context w shift from temp to perm job losses, it poses a very serious risk that people could get stuck in labor-market limbo, with lasting negative impacts for themselves, their families, and the economy.
I also strongly suspect a racial, immigrant, and income dimension to this. It's a pattern that, if it holds, will significantly exacerbate inequality of opportunities and outcomes. Not engaging in aggressive relief/stimulus in the face of this development is policy malpractice.
That is, this could be--can't tell yet, but my gut says absent corrective policy it is--the front end of a "hysteresis" episode, ie, lasting labor market exclusion for vulnerable groups.
