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Modelling with the last Panelbase poll, where votes were transferred *only* from the SNP to a new list Party X (AFI/ISP/Wings/whatever), we see that Party X needs to get near 5% to start winning seats (from SNP) & near 6% to add 3 seats to the & #39;indy bloc& #39;.
In the real world, a certain percentage of votes received by the Greens are already & #39;tactical votes& #39; by those who voted SNP in constituencies.
What if some of these people voted for Party X instead of the Greens?
We see that this more realistic scenario looks even less rosy.
What if some of these people voted for Party X instead of the Greens?
We see that this more realistic scenario looks even less rosy.
Here& #39;s the baseline propjection from that poll as a reminder:
Here& #39;s the situation if 10% of the SNP list vote defects to Party X - as it nears 5%, it just takes two potential SNP seats.
So much for & #39;binning unionist seat warmers& #39;....
So much for & #39;binning unionist seat warmers& #39;....
Now, say Green vote was reduced by 2% & we had 10% of SNP vote for Party X - in other words, 2% go for Party X instead of Greens, what would happen?
Result: Party X takes 4 Green seats plus hands two potential Green seats over to Tories and Labour instead.
Indy bloc 2 down.
Result: Party X takes 4 Green seats plus hands two potential Green seats over to Tories and Labour instead.
Indy bloc 2 down.
Adding an extra 0.5% from the Greens just sees Party X take seats that would potentially have been won by the SNP from the Greens. Doesn& #39;t improve the indy bloc standing.
We have to & #39;transfer& #39; 13.5% of SNP vote (including 2.5% from Greens), just to get back to where we started in terms of indy bloc. Except now all 8 seats for Party X have just been taken from the SNP and Greens!
This idea of & #39;binning unionist seat warmers& #39; really working out well
This idea of & #39;binning unionist seat warmers& #39; really working out well
You’ll notice that just to get back to square one, Party X is now on almost 7% of the vote, putting it above both the Greens and the Lib Dem’s, making it the 4th largest party behind SNP, Tories and Labour. Already well into #FantasyPolitics territory.
Modelling reveals the claim that voting for some indy list party is a way to magically defy arithmetic & ‘bin unionist seat warmers’ without endangering SNP is patent nonsense.
Anyone telling you that hasn’t done any analysis whatsoever & doesn’t know what they’re talking about.
Anyone telling you that hasn’t done any analysis whatsoever & doesn’t know what they’re talking about.
