Another negative data point for traditional auto. Ford, GM, Fiat Chrysler September quarter deliveries down on average 7% compared to Tesla up 43%.
Tesla’s lead widened in September quarter to 50% (Tesla up 43%, other auto down 7%). This compares to a 31% gap in the most recent June quarter.
We expect that large gap to continue for the foreseeable future. Traditional auto is largely lacking a compelling, price effective EV offering.
The traditional auto dilemma. Option 1; release a car with features and range at parity with Tesla and sell the car at cost. This car will be priced 10-25% higher than a comparable Tesla, thereby softening demand and leading to further market share loss.
Option 2; subsidizes vehicles to gain market share from Tesla. This will increase losses with limited margin cushion. The more they sell, the more money they lose.
Taking it to the logical end, we believe car companies that have been around for 50+ years will eventually (10 years from now) be forced to restructure or go out of business.
Tesla's growth is coming from lower priced Model 3&Y with deliveries up 56%, compared to S&X down 13%. This tells us lower price is a major factor in expanding the market.