President was diagnosed with SARS-CoV2 infection evening of Oct 1.

First and foremost, we wish him and FLOTUS a speedy recovery

We also need to sort out who else has been infected

Incubation period of the infection is 2-14 days but reality is that its usually 3-5 days

So, depending on when he was previously tested, reasonable to assume following:

He was likely infected between Saturday and Monday.

Could have been earlier or possibly Tuesday (though unlikely)

If he was infected over w/e, he was infectious to others Tuesday on

It is not clear who infected the President

It might be Ms. Hicks but also possible they had common source

So what does that mean?

This will be a big contact tracing effort.

Everyone who has been near the President at least from Saturday, on needs to be identified

Anyone near Ms. Hicks from Monday on, President from Tuesday on should quarantine

I'd go back, test everyone near President from at least Saturday on to see if we can identify source

What is "near the President" mean? Certainly within 6 ft, 15 minutes

But it could be more

If someone was in an enclosed space with him or Ms Hicks during their contagious period and not wearing a mask, they are at risk

This is why I call this a nightmare.

This is likely a lot of folks and many senior govt leaders

If you know me, you know I love testing.....

But testing is only one layer of protection

Everyone around the President should have always worn masks

People should have been doing social distancing

And limited his contacts.

We will get though this.

But lots to do to identify everyone, quarantine and test folks.

You can follow @ashishkjha.
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