Trump has COVID. There’s a lot to think about, but a few immediate takes:
- Expect more tweeting and Fox and Friends phone appearances in the next few weeks.
- If he remains asymptomatic or has a mild case, it will embolden his dismissive attitude about COVID.
1/

- If he remains mostly fine, election impact will be minimal; motivated reasoning kicks in for Rs and Ds.
- If he or the First Lady get seriously ill there will be a rally around the flag effect that will boost his approval.
2/

- Given how impervious his approval ratings are to nature, it may not be more than ~5 pts
- 5pts swing in October can be quite meaningful in terms of impacting the election outcome.
3/

- Should there be lack of transparency about his condition, the uncertainty will feed conspiracy theories and speculation.
4/4