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Nominations for Labour's NEC elections are in. What do we know?
- @future_we_need clearly in the lead
- @labtowin other major contender
- @OpenLabour will def win one seat
- @TribuneMPs and @LabLeftAlliance unlikely to win any
@labourlist https://labourlist.org/2020/10/what-local-party-nominations-tell-us-about-labours-2020-nec-elections/
Nominations for Labour's NEC elections are in. What do we know?
- @future_we_need clearly in the lead
- @labtowin other major contender
- @OpenLabour will def win one seat
- @TribuneMPs and @LabLeftAlliance unlikely to win any
@labourlist https://labourlist.org/2020/10/what-local-party-nominations-tell-us-about-labours-2020-nec-elections/
Despite pitching themselves as "the people who support the leadership", @labtowin had outright victories in only 10% of CLPs which nominated Starmer. @future_we_need won double as many, whilst also taking the lion's share of Long-Bailey's CLPs.
https://labourlist.org/2020/10/what-local-party-nominations-tell-us-about-labours-2020-nec-elections/
https://labourlist.org/2020/10/what-local-party-nominations-tell-us-about-labours-2020-nec-elections/
The soft left @OpenLabour slate is carefully pitched between the two major ones. One candidate, @AnnBlackLabour has lots of support from right-leaning CLPs whereas the other, @JermainJackman, has support from the left.
@labourlist https://labourlist.org/2020/10/what-local-party-nominations-tell-us-about-labours-2020-nec-elections/
@labourlist https://labourlist.org/2020/10/what-local-party-nominations-tell-us-about-labours-2020-nec-elections/
I reckon Black is all-but-guaranteed a seat whereas Jackman might struggle. However, as @charliemansell points out Jackman is the highest-profile candidate from London which is, by far, the biggest Labour Party region. This will help him.
@labourlist https://labourlist.org/2020/10/what-local-party-nominations-tell-us-about-labours-2020-nec-elections/
@labourlist https://labourlist.org/2020/10/what-local-party-nominations-tell-us-about-labours-2020-nec-elections/
The top 9 candidates are
-6 @future_we_need
-2 @labtowin
-1 from @OpenLabour.
But this won't be the final result. The election is STV, whereas most nominations were FPTP. Moreover, all members can vote while only elected CLP delegates could nominate.
https://labourlist.org/2020/10/what-local-party-nominations-tell-us-about-labours-2020-nec-elections/
-6 @future_we_need
-2 @labtowin
-1 from @OpenLabour.
But this won't be the final result. The election is STV, whereas most nominations were FPTP. Moreover, all members can vote while only elected CLP delegates could nominate.
https://labourlist.org/2020/10/what-local-party-nominations-tell-us-about-labours-2020-nec-elections/
In STV candidates need '1st preference' votes but also 'transfers'. Each slate must persuade members to vote for *all* its candidates above all others.
@future_we_need has had most success: 2/3 of its noms are from CLPs which nominated the entire slate.
https://labourlist.org/2020/10/what-local-party-nominations-tell-us-about-labours-2020-nec-elections/
@future_we_need has had most success: 2/3 of its noms are from CLPs which nominated the entire slate.
https://labourlist.org/2020/10/what-local-party-nominations-tell-us-about-labours-2020-nec-elections/
By contrast, only 1/3 of @labtowin nominations are from CLPs which nominated all six.
@OpenLabour only has two candidates but fewer than half of their nominations are from CLPs which nominated both.
@labourlist https://labourlist.org/2020/10/what-local-party-nominations-tell-us-about-labours-2020-nec-elections/
@OpenLabour only has two candidates but fewer than half of their nominations are from CLPs which nominated both.
@labourlist https://labourlist.org/2020/10/what-local-party-nominations-tell-us-about-labours-2020-nec-elections/
So far, the big story of the election is the disconnect between Leadership and NEC noms. If they were the same we'd get:
-6 @labtowin
-2 @future_we_need
-1 @OpenLabour
Instead, I think it will be
-3 @labtowin
-4 @future_we_need
-1 @OpenLabour
-1 ??? https://labourlist.org/2020/10/what-local-party-nominations-tell-us-about-labours-2020-nec-elections/
-6 @labtowin
-2 @future_we_need
-1 @OpenLabour
Instead, I think it will be
-3 @labtowin
-4 @future_we_need
-1 @OpenLabour
-1 ??? https://labourlist.org/2020/10/what-local-party-nominations-tell-us-about-labours-2020-nec-elections/
Crucially, the Starmer vote is not aligned to the organised right of the party: @labtowin. Many voted for smaller slates or even @future_we_need. This is not surprising given how many Corbyn-supporters voted Starmer. https://labourlist.org/2020/10/what-local-party-nominations-tell-us-about-labours-2020-nec-elections/
By contrast, Long-Bailey's voters overwhelming align to @future_we_need. The left slate has a much higher 'floor' than others.
Big question is: can they hold onto left-leaning Corbyn supporters who backed Starmer, without alienating more critical voices? https://labourlist.org/2020/10/what-local-party-nominations-tell-us-about-labours-2020-nec-elections/
Big question is: can they hold onto left-leaning Corbyn supporters who backed Starmer, without alienating more critical voices? https://labourlist.org/2020/10/what-local-party-nominations-tell-us-about-labours-2020-nec-elections/
I've purposefully not predicted which specific candidates will win because the slates can influence this with voting recommendations, which we've not yet seen.
The exception is @AnnBlackLabour - I think she has a much bigger personal vote than all others. https://labourlist.org/2020/10/what-local-party-nominations-tell-us-about-labours-2020-nec-elections/
The exception is @AnnBlackLabour - I think she has a much bigger personal vote than all others. https://labourlist.org/2020/10/what-local-party-nominations-tell-us-about-labours-2020-nec-elections/
