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A few weeks ago, I was wondering with the ABS-CBN Investigative and Research Group why there were still cases from March being announced by the DOH. We decided to look into the official data and this is what we found out:
While DOH case updates only notes a handful of old cases per day, when tallied as a whole, delayed cases per month reached thousands.
To get the tally, the ABS-CBN IRG analyzed the DOH data drop as of September 21, comparing cases’ onset of symptoms vs the date of announcement.
To get the tally, the ABS-CBN IRG analyzed the DOH data drop as of September 21, comparing cases’ onset of symptoms vs the date of announcement.
Our tally showed that while Filipinos thought there were only 2,078 COVID-19 cases in March, when the government first imposed community quarantine measures, delayed reporting of cases showed 6,211 actual cases for the month.
@ABSCBNNews
@ABSCBNNews
There were also a few thousand more cases eventually tallied for April and May.
From 19,272 COVID-19 cases logged in June, the actual number of cases that experienced their symptoms in June ballooned to 30,296 as reports later came in.Â
@ABSCBNNews
From 19,272 COVID-19 cases logged in June, the actual number of cases that experienced their symptoms in June ballooned to 30,296 as reports later came in.Â
@ABSCBNNews
The biggest disparity was in July, when 55,098 cases were first announced. Based on delayed report, however, 31,000 cases were unaccounted for and those infected with COVID-19 that month turned out to be 86,320.
@ABSCBNNews
@ABSCBNNews
Read the whole article for more observations, including how some cases were announced more than 6 months after they happened: https://news.abs-cbn.com/spotlight/10/02/20/doh-delayed-data-reporting-covid19-coronavirus-disease-months-late-abs-cbn-research-study
Of cases reported belatedly, 15,649 were announced as confirmed cases more than 30 days after patients' symptoms began.
Of those, 1,482 patients showed up in the official tally within 4 to 5 months after they were infected & 1,039 that took within 5 to 6 months. @ABSCBNNews
Of those, 1,482 patients showed up in the official tally within 4 to 5 months after they were infected & 1,039 that took within 5 to 6 months. @ABSCBNNews
“Wala tayong 100% na information system,” Usec. Vergeire said. “With all of our thousands of disease reporting units, isa, dalawa, tatlo na maireport natin in previous months is bagay na acceptable for an info system. But we would like all to be timely and accurate eventually.”
While the actual # of COVID-19 cases then would not have changed the decision-making process of the IATF — since they were already practicing extra caution — @DrTonyLeachon said it would have helped COVID-19 response on the ground.
Among the changes @DrTonyLeachon recommended is the changing the onset of symptoms parameter since many people either cannot. He said the DOH should also consider sending encoders to LGUs instead of doing the validation in the central office. @ABSCBNNews
For the full report on PH’s delayed COVID-19 data, read here: https://news.abs-cbn.com/spotlight/10/02/20/doh-delayed-data-reporting-covid19-coronavirus-disease-months-late-abs-cbn-research-study
