How do we estimate the "ransom" that Lebanon as a hostage pays as a cost to the economy over the last 20 years. This can only be estimates because some of it is opportunity cost and lost revenue. Help is appreciated in putting $ values. https://twitter.com/sibellemhanna82/status/1259872896668913666

I call it a ransom because the alternative is confrontation with Hizballah and civil war which no one is willing to undertake. Civil war would be with Hizballah's constituency who are hostages themselves. So we have to pay the ransom which has several elements.

1/ is loss of revenue from the port and airport this is diluted by people saying that everyone is involved but Hizballah has the lion's share and I would love to see a detailed study.

2/ Annual and multiple declaration of war and expectation of another summer war. This has opportunity cost in cancelled projects, cancelled holidays, investment confidence and outlook. The constant threat of war has an impact on the economy.

3/ Crisis with the GCC and this has several dimensions. 3a/ Impact on 350,000 Lebanese expats in the GCC with their businesses and employment as well as remittances - pressure on them as well as on the country as a result of the worsening relations caused by Hizballah actions.

3b/ The summer tourist season is affected by the crisis with the GCC whose nationals form the main source of tourists. This has impact on hotels, restaurants, services and several businesses geared towards them.

3c/ GCC investment in Lebanon is also impacted by the crisis in relations. Major real estate projects, malls, franchises, supermarket chains and bank deposits are also affected.

3d/ Lebanese creative sector like engineering, consulting, advertising, design etc.. all rely on GCC contracts and so does the entertainment industry and cultural sector. The IT sector and innovation. So are other exports impacted negatively by the crisis with the GCC.

3e/ Crisis with the GCC also means less aid and support both political and economic for Lebanese projects and governments. The extent of that was shown after the 4th of August blast when Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and the UAE created an air bridge to help Lebanon despite the crisis.

4/ Cost of paralysis of government and paralysis of reforms blocked by the veto that Hizballah has since Doha. Unimplemented Paris II, III and Cedre reforms stood in the way of major aid. 19 months of paralysis in 2006-08 and 29 before Aoun election. Negative impact on outlook.

4a/ The non implementation of reforms in public sector employment for example and in the electricity, telecom, port and other sectors have a huge cost. That and corruption are all are part of the ransom.

5/ Cost of the 2006 war - this is a real cost separate from 2/ which is the cost of maintaining a constant state of war. Impact on infrastructure, environment, investor confidence etc...

6/ Impact of the assassinations starting with the attempt on Hamade and Hariri plus the maintenance of a constant and regular state of terror punctuated by political tension and uncertainty. This also has a cost contributing to the ransom.

7/ Impact of the war in Syria and direct cost to the economy of Hizballah participation in the war there. Thousands of young men killed and injured has its cost. Cost of treatment of injured. Economic impact and cost of the refugees from Syria on the economy.

8/ Smuggling to Syria of currency and subsidized commodities. As well as participation in international illegal activities like drugs, money laundering and terror activities. This is also separate from the cost of control of the port and airport mentioned above.

9/ The axis of resistance that Hizballah is part of and the system it creates resulting in a huge army costing 19% of the budget. In that context Lebanon is also being turned into another Gaza, isolated, under sanctions, impoverished and in a constant state of war.

This remains the fundamental question: https://www.opendemocracy.net/en/riviera_citadel_3841jsp/