BREAKING—we now know Hope Hicks’s testing timeline:

Tuesday before debate: NEGATIVE

Wednesday morning: NEGATIVE

Wednesday mid day illness onset

Wednesday mid day: POSITIVE

Thursday evening Trump and FLOTUS: POSITIVE

Incubation period thread below. #COVID19 https://twitter.com/weijia/status/1311923578993025024

2) People ask about infectious period and risk to Biden. Here is a thread below. https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1311897546059591681

3) It does take a few days to get symptoms and test positive—but you can be infectious when the PCR test still suboptimal before symptom onset. Herein lies the problem with testing reliance alone. Trump’s reliance on testing is completely inadequate for finding the virus.

4) And what is next for Trump? Well it depends on underlying risk factors. This is a general flowchart of illness trajectory. But it’s very approximate. It’ll be worse for someone 74 years old, male, and overweight/ obese. (Figure HT @kutrinet)

5) And again, as for Biden. There are many scenarios too. Here is the worse case— but not the most likely per se. thread below. https://twitter.com/drericding/status/1311898210235936770