Thread by @yonkersfpl, Is KDB better at home?After I did the Salah/Mane home/away comparison I [...]

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="💭" title="Gedankenblase" aria-label="Emoji: Gedankenblase">Is KDB better at home?

After I did the Salah/Mane home/away comparison I got a lot of requests to do the same for KDB

So I looked at his performance over 3 PL seasons 2017-2020 and wrote a short [THREAD]

Disclaimer:
KDB only played 975 minutes in 18/19 due to injury

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> GI = Goal Involvments (Goals + Assists)

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> xGI = Expected Goal Involvment

KDB Percentage of returns coming at home per season

GI per 90

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> 17/18: 60%

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> 18/19: 58%

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> 19/20: 64%

He is clearly stronger at home than away with a very stable home/away ratio. Let’s compare this with the expected stats

KDB Percentage of returns coming at home per season

xGI per 90

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> 17/18: 62%

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> 18/19: 70%

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> 19/20: 63%

Very similar to his real output. His xGI were higher than his output in 18/19 though. His limited minutes that season could be an explanation

Now let us examine his combined numbers over 3 seasons and compare that with Man City’s performance over the same period.

Percentage of returns coming at home 2017-2020

GI per 90

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> KDB: 62%

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> City: 58%

His output matches very well with that of the team

Percentage of xGI coming at home 2017-2020

xGI per 90

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> KDB: 63%

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> City: 55%

He does have a higher home percentage than City when it comes to xGI. Let’s look at the actual xGI numbers

xGI per 90 between 2017-2020. Looking at home, away and his general performance

KDB 2017-20

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> Home: 0.82 xGI

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> Away: 0.47 xGI

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> General: 0.65 xGI

Now let’s compare that with how his numbers would look if his xG were perfectly aligned with the teams home/away xG ratio

If KDB matched City’s home and away xG ratio

KDB 2017-20 (Projected)

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> Home: 0.72 xGI

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> Away: 0.59 xGI

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> General: 0.65 xGI

If we compare these findings with his actual xGI , we can see that KDB overperformed by 0.10xGI at home and underperformed by 0.12xGI away

Is a 0.10 xGI over performance at home enough evidence to conclude that he is better at home?

With the huge swings we saw from season to season with Salah and Mane I would not be comfortable to make that conclusion based on a 0.10xGI margin

SUMMARY

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> His output is very much in line with that of the team

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> His xGI is slightly better at home - not enough to conclude

https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="▪️" title="Schwarzes kleines Quadrat" aria-label="Emoji: Schwarzes kleines Quadrat"> KDB’s home/away ratio have been more consistent over a 3 year period than Salah, Mane or Sterling who swinged heavily from one season to another

My Salah vs Mane comparison I referenced earlier https://twitter.com/yonkersfpl/status/1309231347060240384?s=20">https://twitter.com/yonkersfp...

https://twitter.com/yonkersfpl/status/1309231347060240384?s=20

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