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Is KDB better at home?After I did the Salah/Mane home/away comparison I got a lot of requests to do the same for KDB
So I looked at his performance over 3 PL seasons 2017-2020 and wrote a short [THREAD]
Disclaimer:
KDB only played 975 minutes in 18/19 due to injury
GI = Goal Involvments (Goals + Assists)
xGI = Expected Goal Involvment
KDB only played 975 minutes in 18/19 due to injury
GI = Goal Involvments (Goals + Assists) xGI = Expected Goal Involvment
KDB Percentage of returns coming at home per season
GI per 90
17/18: 60%
18/19: 58%
19/20: 64%
He is clearly stronger at home than away with a very stable home/away ratio. Let’s compare this with the expected stats
GI per 90
17/18: 60% 18/19: 58% 19/20: 64%He is clearly stronger at home than away with a very stable home/away ratio. Let’s compare this with the expected stats
KDB Percentage of returns coming at home per season
xGI per 90
17/18: 62%
18/19: 70%
19/20: 63%
Very similar to his real output. His xGI were higher than his output in 18/19 though. His limited minutes that season could be an explanation
xGI per 90
17/18: 62% 18/19: 70% 19/20: 63%Very similar to his real output. His xGI were higher than his output in 18/19 though. His limited minutes that season could be an explanation
Now let us examine his combined numbers over 3 seasons and compare that with Man City’s performance over the same period.
Percentage of returns coming at home 2017-2020
GI per 90
KDB: 62%
City: 58%
His output matches very well with that of the team
Percentage of returns coming at home 2017-2020
GI per 90
KDB: 62% City: 58% His output matches very well with that of the team
Percentage of xGI coming at home 2017-2020
xGI per 90
KDB: 63%
City: 55%
He does have a higher home percentage than City when it comes to xGI. Let’s look at the actual xGI numbers
xGI per 90
KDB: 63% City: 55%He does have a higher home percentage than City when it comes to xGI. Let’s look at the actual xGI numbers
xGI per 90 between 2017-2020. Looking at home, away and his general performance
KDB 2017-20
Home: 0.82 xGI
Away: 0.47 xGI
General: 0.65 xGI
Now let’s compare that with how his numbers would look if his xG were perfectly aligned with the teams home/away xG ratio
KDB 2017-20
Home: 0.82 xGI Away: 0.47 xGI General: 0.65 xGINow let’s compare that with how his numbers would look if his xG were perfectly aligned with the teams home/away xG ratio
If KDB matched City’s home and away xG ratio
KDB 2017-20 (Projected)
Home: 0.72 xGI
Away: 0.59 xGI
General: 0.65 xGI
If we compare these findings with his actual xGI , we can see that KDB overperformed by 0.10xGI at home and underperformed by 0.12xGI away
KDB 2017-20 (Projected)
Home: 0.72 xGI Away: 0.59 xGI General: 0.65 xGIIf we compare these findings with his actual xGI , we can see that KDB overperformed by 0.10xGI at home and underperformed by 0.12xGI away
Is a 0.10 xGI over performance at home enough evidence to conclude that he is better at home?
With the huge swings we saw from season to season with Salah and Mane I would not be comfortable to make that conclusion based on a 0.10xGI margin
With the huge swings we saw from season to season with Salah and Mane I would not be comfortable to make that conclusion based on a 0.10xGI margin
SUMMARY
His output is very much in line with that of the team
His xGI is slightly better at home - not enough to conclude
KDB’s home/away ratio have been more consistent over a 3 year period than Salah, Mane or Sterling who swinged heavily from one season to another
His output is very much in line with that of the team His xGI is slightly better at home - not enough to conclude KDB’s home/away ratio have been more consistent over a 3 year period than Salah, Mane or Sterling who swinged heavily from one season to another
My Salah vs Mane comparison I referenced earlier https://twitter.com/yonkersfpl/status/1309231347060240384?s=20
