So @drsanjaygupta just said that @realDonaldTrump has a more than 90% chance of surviving his battle with COVID-19. But imma ask the question we all have on our minds : What would happen if he were to die or become incapacitated before or after Election Day? It's complicated. 1/ https://twitter.com/japantimes/status/1311896935335374848

Before Election Day: Both the GOP and Democratic Party have their own protocols for such a scenario, but in neither case does the running mate automatically take over the ticket. 2/

For the Republican Party, they would either reconvene another national convention or have RNC state representatives vote for their pick. For the Democrats, the DNC would have the responsibility to fill the vacancy, but it's unclear how exactly it would do that. 3/

Interestingly, the Nov. 3 Election Day timeframe isn't necessarily hard and fast. Congress could also pass a special statute to push Election Day back, giving the parties a chance to find a new candidate. 4/

What happens if the candidate dies after Election Day but before the Electoral College votes on Dec. 14? First of all, there is no do-over. The people do not get to vote again. Rather, responsibility falls on the electors. 5/

While there's no federal law mandating how electors have to cast their votes, they could vote for their party’s VP candidate, a 3rd-party candidate or another top contender. But they don't necessarily have to follow their party's guidance. 6/

But in this sort of scenario, state laws could also muddy the waters, given that each state has the power to determine exactly how its electoral votes are to be cast and distributed. 7/

OK, so what if the candidate dies after the election but before the Jan. 20 inauguration? The 20th Amendment says that if the president-elect dies before beginning his or her term, then the VP-elect assumes the spot. But ... when does a candidate become “president-elect”? 8/

This is debatable, experts say.
He or she definitely becomes president after Jan. 6, when Congress officially counts the Electoral College votes and declares a winner. But the shift could also be said to occur immediately after the Electoral College vote. 9/

Anyway ... so what if the winning candidate dies after Dec. 14 but before Jan. 6? Congress would have to decide whether to count the votes cast for them. If it validates the votes, the laws of succession come into play. But ... 10/

... if Congress decides to throw out the votes, the question will be whether the living candidate has a majority of the overall electoral votes. If not, the 12th Amendment kicks in and the House must elect the president from among the three candidates with the most votes. 11/ 11