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Let's start over. (This thread will review the timeline of early events of this crisis, and then towards the end, I will add my analysis of what went wrong)
COVID-19 is a life-threatening disease.It is caused by SARS-CoV-2, a coronavirus.
1/
Cases first emerged, likely jumping to humans from fruit bats, in late December. The first cases were reported then.
At first, the WHO and CDC did not know whether this was contagious between humans.
But by January 9th, we knew that it was a coronavirus.
At first, the WHO and CDC did not know whether this was contagious between humans.
But by January 9th, we knew that it was a coronavirus.
On January 11, China furnished the genetic sequence of the virus initially called nCoV-2, and now referred to as SARS-CoV-2.
By January 14, human-to-human transmission was a real concern.
By January 14, human-to-human transmission was a real concern.
The early availability of the genetic sequence meant that testing could soon be done.
Here in the United States, we failed to act upon this soon enough.
The CDC is underfunded.
It shows.
It's tests didn't work.
The "control" assay kept failing.
Lost time.
Lost lives.
Here in the United States, we failed to act upon this soon enough.
The CDC is underfunded.
It shows.
It's tests didn't work.
The "control" assay kept failing.
Lost time.
Lost lives.
On January 30th, WHO Director-General @DrTedros declared a public health emergency.
By then, there had already been a few cases in France and the US.
By then, there had already been a few cases in France and the US.
On February 2nd, parcels with RT-PCR kits to detect SARS-CoV-2 were sent to WHO offices all over the world.
(The United States has since announced its intention to drop out of the WHO. Unclear why.)
(The United States has since announced its intention to drop out of the WHO. Unclear why.)
Meanwhile, tests were being rolled out in dozens of countries.
But by late February, the United States still had almost no tests.
You still had to beg the CDC for a test.
People like @llborio and @michaelmina_lab were out there saying this was a huge problem.
But by late February, the United States still had almost no tests.
You still had to beg the CDC for a test.
People like @llborio and @michaelmina_lab were out there saying this was a huge problem.
Once I realized that we could not test people with clear cut cases I was seeing in my ER (early March), I joined them in my concern.
That was the day I first became very, very, very worried that we were not going to be able to control this--as I KNOW we could have, if we tried.
That was the day I first became very, very, very worried that we were not going to be able to control this--as I KNOW we could have, if we tried.
I called for enough tests for every American.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/11/useful-covid-19-testing-we-need-think-outside-box-outside-er/
For months, people like @ashishkjha and @meganranney stayed on this message.
We needed TESTS AND PPE.
We failed on both accounts.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/11/useful-covid-19-testing-we-need-think-outside-box-outside-er/
For months, people like @ashishkjha and @meganranney stayed on this message.
We needed TESTS AND PPE.
We failed on both accounts.
Meanwhile, our understanding of how this virus spreads has developed.
We now agree that droplets (I won't get into semantics--the point is, not primarily surfaces) likely accounts for a far greater fraction of spread than initially thought.
We now agree that droplets (I won't get into semantics--the point is, not primarily surfaces) likely accounts for a far greater fraction of spread than initially thought.
The second day I knew we were in big, big trouble was when I realized that MASKS--simple masks--were being help up as something to resist (!)
There is something deeply wrong with our society if people see wearing a piece of cloth for a few months when indoors as "tyranny."
There is something deeply wrong with our society if people see wearing a piece of cloth for a few months when indoors as "tyranny."
That leads us back to the current situation.
The President of the United States has SARS-CoV-2.
This man refused to wear a mask.
That choice has caused many deaths in others.
He hoped that marketing ploys like hydroxychloroquine would make it all go away.
The President of the United States has SARS-CoV-2.
This man refused to wear a mask.
That choice has caused many deaths in others.
He hoped that marketing ploys like hydroxychloroquine would make it all go away.
He marginalized true experts like Dr. Anthony Fauci, and brought in people way out of their league and element like Scott Atlas.
(There's no better microcosm for our failures than that; Fauci does not speak at press briefings, but Adams does? This is, on its face, insane).
(There's no better microcosm for our failures than that; Fauci does not speak at press briefings, but Adams does? This is, on its face, insane).
The President was deadly wrong on these choices.
But most prominently, masks.
I'll never understand why he didn't decide to "make masks great," or whatever marketing ploy he could use.
I sincerely hope he does not pay for this choice with his own life.
No one wants that.
But most prominently, masks.
I'll never understand why he didn't decide to "make masks great," or whatever marketing ploy he could use.
I sincerely hope he does not pay for this choice with his own life.
No one wants that.
Today is day 0.
Let's start over.
Masks.
Hygiene.
No indoor restaurant dining (Outdoor dining likely is okay. Invest in heat lamps!)
Prioritize school for kids 5-17 over every other thing in society. The lower the cases, the more in-person school, the better for all!
Let's start over.
Masks.
Hygiene.
No indoor restaurant dining (Outdoor dining likely is okay. Invest in heat lamps!)
Prioritize school for kids 5-17 over every other thing in society. The lower the cases, the more in-person school, the better for all!
Finally, no more false idols.
No unproven drugs which never had a chance , like hydroxychloroquine.
No convalescent plasma until there's a proven benefit that absolutely shows it saves more than the 1 in 1250 it kills.
Vaccines when they are proven SAFE AND EFFECTIVE.
No unproven drugs which never had a chance , like hydroxychloroquine.
No convalescent plasma until there's a proven benefit that absolutely shows it saves more than the 1 in 1250 it kills.
Vaccines when they are proven SAFE AND EFFECTIVE.
For more on why we failed to contain COVID-19, read what @nowroozpoor @choo_ek and I wrote this summer. https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/emp2.12155#.X3bHtK-UOnY.twitter
