With the 2019 UCR and the NCVS now out, good time to reiterate an oft-underappreciated point relevant to this “defund” moment:

Most crimes yield no arrest, due to lack of reporting and solving.

Robbery: 14%
Rape: 11%
Agg Assault: 27%
Burglary: 7%
Car theft: 10%
Theft: 5%

These may not be perfect apples-to-apples comparisons, since reporting comes from the BJS and clearances from the FBI, and they don’t always use the same definitions (which... is it’s own issue).

But close enough.

This is a key issue at the heart of defund: the police aren’t making that many arrests anyway! Surely other “stuff” is what prevents crime more, and we should invest more in that stuff.

Now yes, arrests aren’t the only way police reduce crime: their presence matters too.

In fact, that is likely where MOST deterrence comes from: their eyes on the street, not after-the-fact enforcement.

But that function can be achieved in other ways as well.

Still: my guess is ppl think the % of victimizations that result in an arrest is MUCH higher than it is.