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My prediction for the election is that Trump will win a narrow victory in the Supreme Court ultimately caused by the inability of Dem districts and voters to cope with expanded mail-in voting, which will lead to a bunch of missing and thrown out ballots.
There will be brief riots but quickly quelled by the military this time. Then we'll have a second term of gridlock and divided government (good).
I'm basing this on the law of funny: the plausible outcome that would supply the most narrative irony is destined to happen.
This method of augury often works, and when it doesn't, it's the augur to blame.
This method of augury often works, and when it doesn't, it's the augur to blame.
The big problem with the rapid expansion of mail in voting is that governments are really incompetent and, relatedly, the base you need to turn out in a big election really stupid. We are going to see tons and tons of ballots that can't be counted.
That's right folks, the arc of history is long but it bends from hanging chads to hanging with Chad to hangings in Chad and then all the way back to hanging chads.
To prove the efficacy of my Law of Funny prognostications, I offer https://twitter.com/PereGrimmer/status/1253130872653398016?s=20
In case it's not clear, I think this outcome would be funny because by trying to steal the election, the Dems actually wind up costing themselves a winnable election.
That will happen dozens of times during the recounts and court proceedings! https://twitter.com/MenOfNumenor/status/1311769207420444672?s=20
I also project that if this scenario ends up happening, I'll get very little credit, as if there's a mental block acknowledging the thing.
It's happening https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1312971620902998022?s=20
Oh lawd, it is happening
https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/10/vote-by-mail-the-unintended-consequences/
https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/10/vote-by-mail-the-unintended-consequences/
Ah let me not forget this. I have had a powerful year.
Ahhhhh I knew I remembered this pattern making a difference somewhere.
As Steve Sailer points out, Dem demo difficulty with ballot instructions may have cost Gore the presidency.
https://www.unz.com/isteve/lesson-from-2000-election-blacks-mess-up-their-ballots-more/
As Steve Sailer points out, Dem demo difficulty with ballot instructions may have cost Gore the presidency.
https://www.unz.com/isteve/lesson-from-2000-election-blacks-mess-up-their-ballots-more/
Most of this seems to be just error, not fraud as such. https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1313661368856457217?s=20
This guy claims Biden needs to cruise at 90% of the black vote to win. No idea if true, seems high.
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1343305/US-election-poll-donald-trump-coronavirus-covid-joe-biden-exclusive-polling
https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1343305/US-election-poll-donald-trump-coronavirus-covid-joe-biden-exclusive-polling
Every incident like this disproportionately hurts Dems. https://twitter.com/jackturmanIII/status/1314614888505978881?s=20
Biden preparing his base. https://twitter.com/tylerpager/status/1315041824168448000?s=20
It's happening. https://twitter.com/mantlehog/status/1314980463895740416?s=20
Dem VA Secretary of State. https://twitter.com/wusa9/status/1316022991671619588?s=20
What people don't get is that just filling out a ballot is implicitly a poll test with a really low ceiling. Expanded mail in voting raises the ceiling and threshold needed to tender an acceptable ballot slightly. It also runs the risk of government error.
So by encouraging states to roll out massively expanded mail-in voting, Dems are implicitly making a big bet on the intelligence of their constituents, and the competence of State governments to create and administer a new program without error.
That seems like a really dumb bet to me.
This type of analysis is systematically not performed by pundits, since they have no conception of how dumb someone with a 100IQ is. I've seen a lot of this:
I think the mechanism for the law of funny is hubris—people who try to control fate provoke nemesis; pride in the eye ignores the optic nerve and its Achilles blind spot. https://twitter.com/darrmv/status/1316486842464821248?s=20
A further input to this prediction is that social distancing rules turn in person voting into a test of conscientiousness, creating an R advantage. https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1316404648400437251?s=20
Dem voters are also in general in denser areas, meaning the test of conscientiousness is heightened for in person.
Covid fears prevent Dems from maintaining registrations https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1316942869232603136?s=20
It's happening. It really is. Don't say I didn't warn you. https://twitter.com/AmySwearer/status/1318163557255610368?s=20
It. Is. Happening. https://twitter.com/TrumpDucki/status/1318566329557962753?s=20
They're afraid. But it's happening. https://twitter.com/espinsegall/status/1319075278283542529?s=20
Kinsley gaffe from Biden? Game on! https://twitter.com/TyCardon/status/1320116661790380037?s=20
(Not vouching for accuracy of clip, feel free to point me to full provenance.)
*A "Kinsley gaffe" is when a pol accidentally blurts out the truth. Oft leads to awkward press conferences walking back an obvious fact, often by claiming it's out of bounds irrelevant or nonexistent.
*A "Kinsley gaffe" is when a pol accidentally blurts out the truth. Oft leads to awkward press conferences walking back an obvious fact, often by claiming it's out of bounds irrelevant or nonexistent.
Wow, it seems to be real. Biden boasts of having (with Obama) built the most extensive and inclusive voted fraud organization ever. Then he talks about methods to bypass checks on voting twice. Jump link below. https://twitter.com/PereGrimmer/status/1320158965645381633?s=20
Thank you to @CaptainDanger8 for tracking this down. https://twitter.com/CaptainDanger8/status/1320158194048638977?s=20
It's happening. Gap between polls and early voting is wide, and doesn't even take into account the considerations that animate this thread. https://twitter.com/Barnes_Law/status/1320133706665791488?s=20
Shit's paeniping https://twitter.com/ChrisMurphyCT/status/1320876610908729344?s=20
