Frustratingly, this article did not link to the actual report. I had to hunt it down. Here it is, so you can read for yourself, along with some of my takeaways on both the report & the reporting: 1/

https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5bc63eb90b77bd20c50c516c/t/5f74915264a865029dafa27c/1601474930418/APTA+Covid+Best+Practices+-+09.29.2020_update.pdf https://twitter.com/KCarliniKing/status/1311323122038198274

The evidence provided for the safety of NYC's transit system is the fact that positivity rates & transit usage are inversely correlated: more people used the subway this summer (vs spring), yet infection rates fell. But this is not evidence that transit use is "low risk" 2/

Ridership was still down 75% this summer. The report correctly argues that the main factor is level of community spread, which fell following the spring lockdown, but it does not answer whether subways facilitate transmission when community spread is high. 3/

The report also cites the following as protective factors: mask usage, trips of 15 minutes or less, people not talking while commuting, social distancing. The problem is that these assumptions don't hold in reality. 4/

The one factor they point to that does directly lower risk is the high level of ventilation in the subways - 18 air exchanges per hour. However, the capacity for ventilation & risk reduction depends on lowered density on the trains. If they become crowded, risk goes up. 4/

And that's the problem: public policy right now is to try to *increase* ridership on mass transit. The WSJ article says officials are working to convince people the trains are safe b/c employers cite it as the major fear workers have about returning to offices. 5/

And paid riders are needed to fill the budget gap at the MTA. Mass transit *is* safer now b/c it is at lower capacity & well-ventilated. But if officials are successful in getting back to 70-80% capacity it becomes higher-risk - esp if infection rates rise (as they are doing). 6/

And this puts the actually essential workers who rely on mass transit at higher risk. This is the dynamic of the reopening in general. If/when we are forced to close again, office workers can go home, but those who can't stay home will have been put in danger once again. 7/