@JoeBiden v. Trump 10/1 UPDATE

Nat’l: Biden +7.9 / Clinton +3.0
Electoral College votes: Biden 279-124 (+155) / Clinton 217-187 (+30)

Biden 50%+ in EIGHT battlegrounds, 49%+ in TWELVE
ZERO for Clinton; highest 44.3%, ≤42% in 15

>1%+ change since 9/15:
9 --> Biden
2 --> Trump

NOTES (con’t):

1. "Battleground": ≤10% in 2016 results or 2020 polling averages

2. LV when available, otherwise RV; no A

3. Battleground polls w/3rd party used when available

4. Turnout-hypothesizing versions of polls not used

5. Outliers (10%+ off of average) excluded

ETERNAL REMINDERS:

1. 2016 nat'l + battlegrounds polling AVERAGES were accurate (≥5%), except WI/IA:

https://www.aapor.org/Education-Resources/Reports/An-Evaluation-of-2016-Election-Polls-in-the-U-S.aspx

2. This thread is NOT A FORECAST; it is a REPORT on current data. Earliest possible guess at election outcome 11/1, if then, and probably with caveats.

ETERNAL REMINDERS (con't)

3. And FYI, forecasts aren't "yes/no" *predictions* They're probability reports, and 538's largely matched Team Trump's ~30%. Think of them like the hurricane path charts that show all possibilities, and indicating which ones are most likely.

A1a. Registered voter (RV) to likely voter (LV) switch: comparing 8/15 to 10/1, A/B-rated pollsters' use of LV up 70-92% in battlegrounds, 30-88% nat'l. This change favors Trump ~1-2%, which may be why we’ve seen the same movement toward Trump since mid-August.

A1a. The changing disparity in RV/LV ratio between nat'l and battleground from mid-August to now also explains earlier disparities between nat’l and battleground margins. Currently, margin in most likely "tipping point" state (PA, per 538) is within 1% of the nat’l average.

A2b. In 2020, several pollsters are "weighting for education" by including more non-college voters, based on 2016 turnout. We’ll see if that repeats, but it benefits Trump ~3%. So by 2016 practices, Biden would be as much as +10.9% nat'l, with 291 EC votes.

A1c. We’ll see what the post-debate polls show, but *scientific* polls on the debate itself (i.e., not "anyone can click/vote" social media polls) show Biden winning by an average of 21%. And for Trump, was was trailing by 7-8%, anything other than an outright win is a loss.

A1c. CNN, DFP, and MC showed an average 49-32% Biden win among indies, and more surprisingly, that 17% of GOP watchers thought he won, far more than the 5-8% GOP support Biden has averaged in polls. No guarantee that means new supporters / converts, but we'll see...

A1c. According to the CNN and DFP polls, Trump didn’t help himself among groups with whom he’s trailing, in particular women (61-30% Biden), let alone groups he’s leading with, including non-college grads (54-36 Biden).

A1c. CBS’s pre-debate poll showed only 6% undecided. CNN (but oddly not CBS) asked if viewers were more / less likely to support a candidate afterward. The result favored Biden, 32-11%, which among 6% of the electorate, would mean Biden +1.9, Trump +0.7.

A2a. In short, no clear signal of big changes coming in polls (similar to 1-2% change after conventions). Why? Primarily because there are so few undecideds left.

In fact, average undecideds + 3rd party in recent election polls just 7%, less than HALF of the 17.5% on 10/1/16!

A2b. Primary reason is that the 2020 general electorate has been more engaged than Election Day 2016, 2012, or even 2008 since JANUARY! That means far fewer are still making up their minds at this point of the cycle, when in past years many would just now start "tuning in."

A2b. Also, on 10/1/16, ALL "lean Clinton" battlegrounds had more undecideds + 3rd party than ALL "lean Trump" battlegrounds except NE-2, where Trump led by 24%.

That means Trump had far more room to grow support in "Clinton battlegrounds" than she had in "Trump battlegrounds."

A2b. ONE "Trump battleground" in 2020, the traditionally red SC. Also, ALL tossups went red in 2016.

Biden's lead greater or equal to ALL undecideds + 3rd party in 8 of 11 "Biden battlegrounds," and in the other three, Trump needs an average of 93% of non-Biden voters to win!

A3. Historically speaking, Biden *should* be weaker than Clinton, since he's running against an incumbent, who've won re-election 10 of 13 times since 1916 (LBJ, Truman didn't run).

A3a. In fact, as @ForecasterEnten has noted, Biden is the ONLY challenger in the history of modern polling to lead an incumbent wire-to-wire. https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1307510912769822720

A3a. Enten further notes that the only incumbent in modern polling to come back after trailing as badly as Trump is now was Truman in 1948. Carter was in a similar position in 1980, and lost by 440 electoral votes.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/27/politics/incumbents-elections-polling-analysis/index.html

(A3a) Also, as much as trailing candidates love the Truman story and this famous pic from 1948, polling methods have been fundamentally changed since then, not least by moving away from "quota sampling," and literal door knocking to find respondents:

https://www.math.upenn.edu/~deturck/m170/wk4/lecture/case2.html

A3b. In fact, Biden hasn't trailed in a SINGLE nat'l poll by an A-B rated pollster in 2020. Clinton trailed in TWENTY by 10/1/16. Just 4 ties for Biden (5 for Clinton), most recently on April 9th (Fox News: 42-42), while Dem primary still contested, with the party still divided.

A3b. In fact, Biden’s lead is STEADIEST in modern polling. Why? Because both candidates have 95-100% name recognition, and served in the Executive. Add to that extreme political polarization, and you have a historically steady race. But also... https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/06/politics/biden-lead-steady-new-polls/index.html

A3c. Voters just LIKE Biden more than Trump:

He’s currently +3 in un/favorables, 14% BETTER than Trump, whereas Clinton’s rating was only slightly better than Trump's in 2016. Trump's "very/highly" unfavorable is also 12% higher than Biden's!

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/americans-distaste-for-both-trump-and-clinton-is-record-breaking/

B3b. This reflects Trump’s job approval numbers, which have the lowest overall average of any president in modern polling. At this point, Trump is trailing Ford and LBJ, and is just slightly ahead of GHW Bush, Truman, and Carter.

So why all these comparisons to the last election? First, there are some valuable contrasts to be made, especially since Biden’s running against the same opponent.

But mostly, it’s cuz if ya don’t, people who just don’t like the data will lazily say "BUT 2016!!!"

B1. How's he doing it? Per A/B-rated nat'l polls, 9/1-9/30 vs 2016 exits, he's outperforming Clinton with:

White: +17
White/college: +23
White/no coll: +20
College grads: +14
Men: +8
Indies +14
Moderates: +19
50-64 years: +10
Over 65: +13
Suburban +11

B1a. The most noteworthy of these is that Biden is just 3%(!) behind Trump with white voters! No Dem has won this group since LBJ in '64. Only others to get within 5% were Carter 76, and Clinton 92/96, two of the last three Dems to win the presidency. All others lost by 10-20%+.

B1a. Reflective of this, he's doing 20% better with white college grads, a group that’s been a key swing demographic since 1988. More importantly, he’s doing 23%(!!!) better with white voters who didn’t go to college, a group that turned out BIG for Trump in 2016.

B1b. The next most notable data point is that he's essentially TIED with men. The last three to do it were Carter 76, Clinton 92/96, and Obama 08. All others lost by 10-20%+.

B1c. He’s winning two other traditional GOP blocs, namely voters 50-64, and over 65. Only Carter and Gore have carried the latter since 1972.

B1b. Biden's been doing historically well in the suburbs, currently outpacing Clinton by 11%. This is notable, considering Trump’s less-than-subtle appeals to suburbanites, who were a key swing demographic in 2016.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/19/politics/joe-biden-donald-trump-suburban-voters-polling/index.html

B1c. Biden is absolutely OWNING the political middle, doing 14% better with independents, and 19%(!) better with moderates.

B1d. A popular myth these numbers explode is that Biden's struggling with young voters. While pollsters divide age groups differently (e.g., 18-29 vs. 18-34, 30-44 vs. 35-50), he’s basically running even with Clinton among the youngest group, 18-29.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/biden-doesnt-really-have-a-young-voters-problem/

B1e. One other myth to put to bed is that Biden struggles with liberals. In fact, he’s outpacing Clinton by 13%, while running even with her among conservatives.

B1f. Biden finally appears to have remedied his weakness with Hispanic voters, improving 10% from two weeks ago, pulling even with Clinton. A recent poll of only Hispanic voters shows the same, except in FL, where Trump’s support is at his 2016 level, while undecideds remain high

B1g. One slight weakness that remains is Black voters: support for Trump is basically still the same as 2016 (Atlas and Emerson had surprisingly high numbers; without them, he's even with 2016), but undecideds still leave Biden behind Clinton’s numbers.

B2. Enthusiasm: Trump touted a June poll showing 50% of his supporters “very excited” to vote for him, with just 27% saying the same for Biden. While Biden had recently finished a hotly contested primary, and was still consolidating the party, there are two bigger issues here:

B2a. In Dem primaries, desire to beat Trump turned out record numbers ().

Possible indication of similar outcome in three Sept polls, all of which show Biden winning likely voters who didn’t vote in 2016 by ~20%.

B2b. Sept Fox poll show a higher % of Biden voters citing this as their primary motive, and as recent studies have shown, voting AGAINST a candidate has become a more powerful motivator than voting for a candidate since the early 2000's ( https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3414607).

Advantage Biden

B2c. Sept CNN poll shows "enthusiastic" supporters for Biden and Trump both at 87%, with “very/extremely enthusiastic” essentially tied at 72-74% (margin of error ~6.0).

So it seems the enthusiasm gap is GONE (if it ever really existed)!

B4c. Early voting numbers favor Dems, but they did in 2016 too, and polls indicate most GOP plan to vote on Election Day. Also, early voters are usually partisans, not swing voters, who break late (again, see 2016). In short, these numbers are no guarantee of the final outcome.

But speaking of gaps and polls, remember that these data can always CHANGE. Whatever polls say, they don’t mean anything unless you vote!

So check your registration and make your voting plan at http://www.IWillVote.com , and then VOTE VOTE VOTE VOTE!!!