Our September @Zumper rent report is out

The YoY drop in San Francisco this month is pretty seismic, a far steeper fall than we've reported before

SF 1BR rents 20.3%

We re-ran the numbers for SF to make sure they were legit because the drop was so large

Last month's rent median had been 14% down YoY, and we'd been hovering around 11-14% down in SF consistently across summer

The data this month is correct. The drop has been that large

This has historically been a function of:

- Flood of Supply: many leases coming to market after not being renewed; short-term rentals converted to long-term

- Reduced Demand: recession, move to remote work, trading for suburbs

There seems to be a new factor in the most recent data, though it was not this alone that drove the big dip

The (ongoing) Bay Area fires

For many people, this seems to have tipped the balance about their medium-term location choices

Is the Bay Area done?

No

Despite everything our data is showing, there are so many signals that it will recover, however contrarian this point may sound

Tech hiring in the Bay Area is the biggest leading indicator of this and it's on fire again, I know this first hand :)

However, I think we're talking years to fully recover, not months

A lot of other interesting trends in the 1BR YoY rent data:

12.5% in NYC
11.0% in LA
13.5% in DC

While some geos saw increased demand as people left major metros:

1.7% in Miami
2.4% in Austin
8.5% in Sacramento
11.8% in Newark

Full report here: https://www.zumper.com/blog/rental-price-data/