"Exceptionally many vulnerable – “dry tinder” – in Sweden prior to COVID-19"

Working paper from Jones Herby
Source: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3702595

1/x
Unusually large stock of “dry tinder” in Sweden going into the COVID-19 pandemic
2/x
The stock of “dry tinder” in Sweden in primo April 2020 was large in a historical perspective. Not since the beginning of the 1970’s has the stock been as high in Sweden.
3/x
Why was the stock larger in Sweden than in other Nordic countries? It is very clear that Sweden look a lot like the other Nordic countries until the beginning og 2019, where
Sweden starts to deviate.
4/x
Year to year change in stock of 'dry tinder' in April (2015-2020)
5/x
... the “dry tinder” theory cannot alone explain the differences, as Finland – although looking a lot like Sweden in March 2020 – did not experience thesame excess mortality. So how well can my measure of the stock of “dry tinder” explain the many COVID-19 deaths in Sweden?
6/x
"Large change in mortality during flu-season year to year correlates strongly with low mortality the following flu-season"
7/x
The stock of “dry tinder” were as large as the number of COVID-19-deaths in Sweden
There are many possible explanations for this difference, but in the following I want to point out that “dry tinder” could be a significant explanation.
8/x
Discussion
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