12) The EU should offer to extend its existing programme to help Turkey support the 3.6 million refugees it is hosting if Ankara pauses all its energy exploration activities.

13) A new deal is in the EU’s interests: Europe would be betraying its values if it relied only on Greece forcefully repelling migrants at the border. And Turkey would welcome the EU’s help, as supporting the refugees is a large burden.

14) The money should not go to the Turkish government but would be used to directly support refugees. Funding would be disbursed in tranches and would be halted if Ankara resumed unilateral activities.

15) Ultimately improvement in EU-TR relations depends on whether Ankara thinks it gains more from confrontation or improving relations. Together with Turkey’s economic difficulties, a new agreement to cooperate on migration could help persuade Erdoğan of the merits of the latter