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Example 2. Is PCR testing of asymptomatics a good idea?
This man is COVID positive but has no symptoms at all. He says he has been completely healthy for the past month.
The reason he got tested? All staff were required to be tested before the beginning of the school year. 1/
This man is COVID positive but has no symptoms at all. He says he has been completely healthy for the past month.
The reason he got tested? All staff were required to be tested before the beginning of the school year. 1/
He has no symptoms, so we don't know when he was infected. People can excrete RNA for weeks. He could have been infected 2 months ago!
But if he was infected more than 2 weeks ago, he is no longer infectious.
You're the contact tracer. Did you just waste 45 minutes? Nope. 2/
But if he was infected more than 2 weeks ago, he is no longer infectious.
You're the contact tracer. Did you just waste 45 minutes? Nope. 2/
The man tells you that two days before he was tested, he attended a very small wedding. And a very nice post-wedding banquet.
(Don't shame him, it was only 20 people. And they were careful...)
3/
(Don't shame him, it was only 20 people. And they were careful...)
3/
Now you are in clean up mode. You get the guest list from the bride and call everyone. Some people have already gotten tested; you tell the others how to get a test.
When dust settles, 8/20 (40%) of the wedding attendees are positive. 4/
When dust settles, 8/20 (40%) of the wedding attendees are positive. 4/
Lesson 1: A single positive result from an asymptomatic person can uncover a COVID-19 cluster. Don't assume that it's an incidental finding in a non-infectious person.
It certainly wasn't in this cluster. 5/
It certainly wasn't in this cluster. 5/
Lesson 2: COVID-19 spreads like wildfire in groups where people are not taking precautions. Wedding, funerals...these are times where people aren't thinking about social distancing and masks.
No one at this wedding was symptomatic.
And everything was over in 7 days. 6/
No one at this wedding was symptomatic.
And everything was over in 7 days. 6/
Lesson 3: More testing is better. Test yourself after social gatherings. PCR, rapid antigen, saliva, pooled. They're all good. We just need to test more. END
@AbraarKaran @nataliexdean @BillHanage @cmyeaton @michaelmina_lab @RanuDhillon
@AbraarKaran @nataliexdean @BillHanage @cmyeaton @michaelmina_lab @RanuDhillon
