NOTE: There's evidence to suggest that just a month before Trump faces Election Day in America his ally in Turkey, Erdogan, has helped restart a war—that may draw in America—alongside Trump allies in Azerbaijan. Stay tuned. Starting a war was on my list of possible Trump gambits.
PS/ Believe me, I know that this is a decades-long issue. But *no one* seems to understand why Trump's Turkish and Azeri allies initiated military hostilities at *this* moment after more than a quarter-century of relative peace. There's no way for the timing not to be considered.
PS2/ There are ways for the election to be relevant to what's happened that don't directly involve Trump. For instance, Erdogan may perceive that Trump could lose in November, deciding that he has to participate in this power-grab while he can be sure America will stay *neutral*.
PS3/ Those who think that a possible connection with the U.S. election is impossible understand *nothing* about the dangerous Trump-Turkey relationship. Trump has already green-lit Turkey illegally invading another country, so the idea Erdogan would've forgotten that is *insane*.
PS4/ Moreover, every major-media outlet covering this war says it's perfectly calibrated to draw in major powers, including Turkey and Russia. But Iran also borders the region—and at least one European nation, France, has already drawn a line in the sand about what it will allow.
PS5/ Trump's longtime friend and fixer and attorney has said that he believes Trump would start a war to stay in power. And again, we have absolutely no explanation for why Trump's allies are taking the actions they're taking at *this* precise moment. The whole world is confused.
PS6/ I've often said Trump's Turkey collusion is more nefarious than even his Russian collusion, as it's led Trump to commit war crimes, put U.S. troops in the line of fire, and provoke the reestablishment of ISIS through the escape of tens of thousands of ISIS fighters in Syria.
PS7/ We must be very clear right now about what we do and do not know. We do *not* know if what is happening is connected to the American election. But there is *every* reason—based on history and hard evidence—for Congress and the media to seriously investigate that possibility.
PS8/ It'd be so easy for Iran to be drawn into this war. It'd be so easy for Turkey to do it via what the BBC says Trump pal Erdogan is already doing: hiring unaccountable Syrian bandits fraudulently dressed in Azeri uniforms to stir up trouble. They could draw Iran into the war.
PS9/ Keep in mind, Erdogan is only in a position to exercise this sort of power in Syria because Trump greenlit Erdogan's invasion of that country, withdrew all US troops from the area Erdogan is recruiting from, and put our Kurdish allies under such emergency they can't stop it.
PS10/ So even if it turned out that Trump had no involvement in or foreknowledge of what Erdogan's doing—despite their longtime secret backchannel, discussed in Proof of Corruption (2020)—it'd be the case that Trump's actions emboldened Erdogan to do what he's done and do it now.
PS11/ Media consistently fails to frame big stories early on via their history/context as it relates to Trump. Today—literally today—is the moment for media to start educating America on this incredibly dangerous situation and also position Trump with respect to what's happening.
PS12/ I wrote the below thread 13 days ago. #10 on my list—many of whose items have happened in just the last 13 days—certainly seems highly relevant to what Trump allies are doing right now on Iran's doorstep for no reason (timing-wise) anyone can figure.
PS13/ There's no real reason for Turkey or Russia to want a war with Iran, or for Iran to want to get involved in what is happening in Armenia or Azerbaijan. What's *more* likely is a sense among Trump's allies—and possibly Trump—that chaos in this moment can benefit all of them.
PS14/ For the first time in the modern era, Trump's allies have reason to think any aggression by Iran would be countered not just by Israel but a powerful coalition of Arab countries—including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt—acting in *conjunction* with Israel.
PS15/ The dream for Trump and his allies is to manufacture a scenario in which the European Union allies itself with Israel and Trump's allies in the Middle East to oppose Iran. Well, we have a war Trump's allies just started that France has already drawn a line in the sand over.
PS16/ War is, needless to say, foggy and complicated as well as bloody. Rhetoric can play an enormous role, as can deception about who is responsible for what. This new war can create a fog of chaos in the middle of the globe that Trump and his allies can profit from politically.
PS17/ For instance, if Turkey can hire Syrian bandits to pose as Azeris, why can't it hire such bandits to—in some guise—fire sporadically on Iranian forces, thus creating a transient appearance of Iran's involvement in this sorry affair? The resulting confusion would aid Trump.
PS18/ Right now it's difficult to imagine *any* scenario in which the U.S. military gets directly involved in this, but the U.S. could get involved as an ally on one side or the other, allowing Trump to position himself as a "U.S. president at war." We already know he wants that.
PS19/ How the belligerents could break down if this widens:

Aggressors: 🇹🇷🇦🇿🇺🇲🇮🇱🇸🇦🇦🇪🇪🇬
Defenders: 🇦🇲🇮🇷
Neutral: 🇷🇺
In Impossible Situation: 🇪🇺 (all countries )

Hopefully we can see how this benefits Trump and his pals and harms America's allies—even as Putin plays peacemaker?
PS20/ What protects us from the scenario above is that Russia isn't ready to make a break from Iran yet, though a war could force the issue—as the allies Russia *ultimately* wants are on the other side, and Iran is weak and crippled by sanctions. Also: COVID-19 is a complication.
PS21/ There's also long-standing enmity between the Turks and certain Sunni Arab nations, *but* it's precisely *that enmity* that Trump and his team have been trying to bridge, using themselves and Israel as intermediaries between (particularly) Turkey and the UAE/Saudi Arabia.
PS22/ The most important thing is that the scenario anyone in the United States needs to apprehend here is one in which proxies fight one another to create political benefit for certain parties domestically and internationally rather than specific military benefits or objectives.
PS23/ Anyone new to the feed today who wonders why I'm writing about this, and what my basis is for what I've said here, is free to read any of my three national best-selling books on Trump's foreign policy with respect to Turkey, Russia, Israel, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and the UAE.
PS24/ Conversely, I claim no specific knowledge with respect to the Azeri-Armenian conflict, though I've written extensively on Trump's business relationships with Azeris, so I do have a window into how those relationships could translate into a preelection geopolitical strategy.
PS25/ As I've said, *we don't have any clear answers* on any of this. The question is whether there's sufficient evidence to have cause for some concern, and to warrant immediate investigation by Congress and the media into what role if any the U.S. has played or could play here.
You can follow @SethAbramson.
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