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Let& #39;s play a game.
Here& #39;s a thread on stimulus negotiations.
First, let me refute three incorrect assumptions that most people are making. /1
Here& #39;s a thread on stimulus negotiations.
First, let me refute three incorrect assumptions that most people are making. /1
1. Donald Trump has zero influence over the outcome of stimulus negotiations. He is losing with a month to go. He needs stimulus badly. He will sign anything Congress sends to his desk. /2
2. The debate isn& #39;t about IF we will get stimulus, we obviously will at some point. The debate is WHEN, and that will not be before the election. /3
3. Instead of focusing on what the McConnell and Pelosi SHOULD do, we need to be focused on what action would be the most RATIONAL 34 days ahead of an election. /4
As I said in a previous post, this is classic Game Theory - The Prisoner& #39;s Dilemma. Let& #39;s call Pelosi and House Democrats Prisoner A and McConnell and Senate Republicans Prisoner B. (I know, wishful thinking, right?) /5
The obvious decision here is for both sides to agree to some large stimulus bill and get it done ASAP. That& #39;s the best outcome for any incumbent facing the voters in November. But, not knowing how the other party will react, is it the rational decision? /6
Although passing a stimulus would seem to be the best outcome for incumbents, the least risk most rational decision is for each chamber to pass their own bill - irreconcilable with the other& #39;s - and tout that to the voters. /7
Pelosi passes $2.2T, McConnell rejects it. She & her caucus can tout passing 2 large bills to help the voters & blame McConnell for not passing them. Then, assuming the Democrats sweep, she can start of the Biden administration on a high note passing whatever bill she wants. /8
McConnell passes his own $999B bill and blames Pelosi and Democrats for wasting money on pork projects. If Trump wins and he holds the Senate, he passes a bill more friendly to his base after the election. If the Dems sweep, he tries to block and uses it politically in 2022. /9
