Let's play a game.

Here's a thread on stimulus negotiations.

First, let me refute three incorrect assumptions that most people are making. /1

1. Donald Trump has zero influence over the outcome of stimulus negotiations. He is losing with a month to go. He needs stimulus badly. He will sign anything Congress sends to his desk. /2

2. The debate isn't about IF we will get stimulus, we obviously will at some point. The debate is WHEN, and that will not be before the election. /3

3. Instead of focusing on what the McConnell and Pelosi SHOULD do, we need to be focused on what action would be the most RATIONAL 34 days ahead of an election. /4

As I said in a previous post, this is classic Game Theory - The Prisoner's Dilemma. Let's call Pelosi and House Democrats Prisoner A and McConnell and Senate Republicans Prisoner B. (I know, wishful thinking, right?) /5

The obvious decision here is for both sides to agree to some large stimulus bill and get it done ASAP. That's the best outcome for any incumbent facing the voters in November. But, not knowing how the other party will react, is it the rational decision? /6

Although passing a stimulus would seem to be the best outcome for incumbents, the least risk most rational decision is for each chamber to pass their own bill - irreconcilable with the other's - and tout that to the voters. /7

Pelosi passes $2.2T, McConnell rejects it. She & her caucus can tout passing 2 large bills to help the voters & blame McConnell for not passing them. Then, assuming the Democrats sweep, she can start of the Biden administration on a high note passing whatever bill she wants. /8

McConnell passes his own $999B bill and blames Pelosi and Democrats for wasting money on pork projects. If Trump wins and he holds the Senate, he passes a bill more friendly to his base after the election. If the Dems sweep, he tries to block and uses it politically in 2022. /9

As in the Prisoner's Dilemma, agreeing to a stimulus (staying silent) offers the best possible outcome for both parties. But it also offers the worst. The rational choice is to blame the other prisoner and limit risk. That's why I don't expect anything before Nov. 3. /10